I doubt an "alchemist" will be able to commercially create gold anytime soon. If ever. As for the opening up of more mines- mankind has been mining gold for millenia. The earth is finite, you know. And as it gets tougher to find gold, it also gets more expensive. I believe that we are entering a period of accelerated resource depletion as well as diminshing resource discoveries. The easy stuff to find has been found. I don't see gold rushes occuring like they did in California, or the Spanish discovery of the Aztec and Mayan gold reserves. The world is only getting smaller, every year. And don't forget, the BRIC nations overall are experiencing rapid upward mobility - that's 40% of the world's population that 30-40 years ago had a fraction of the money they have now. Are you familiar with India's cultural importance of gold? My view is that maybe gold does go under 1,000, but in the long term, the overal trend will be up. The peaks will be higher, and the valleys will be less likely to be lower. So long as the world relies on a fiat monetary system - and so long as politicians make promises that require debt - gold will increase in value. And it's not just gold. The world's population is not only still growing, but the percentage of "westernized" consumers is growing too. All rare metals, all nonrenewable resources will only increase in value. Interesting article - Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...hedge-book-as-world-gold-supply-runs-out.html
The gold prices are rising because of World War III fears. I do not see any other reason for record-high gold prices.
How about central banks doubling their balance sheet? Most of the developed world running 'war time' deficits? Several large US states on the brink of insolvency if not already there? USD hovering around all time lows? Am I forgetting any reasons?
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Every fad will end, not just Crox. Biddin the gold is good for now though, no reason to stop. But to say it will never go lower than 1000? Why is a brilliant man sounding like a noob?
Observing the percentage change fluctuations I gather we have only expanded by 64% since 1/1/2008 approximately....hmm, yeah, that's a lot, but I don't get doubled from that chart. It's clear from absolute amounts it's a double, not from the percentage change. Are these adjusted for something? Perhaps seasonal?
Quote from Misthos: I doubt an "alchemist" will be able to commercially create gold anytime soon. If ever. "Alchemists" already create elements out of others out of atom smashing. It is already doable, but yes, prohibitively expensive. As for the opening up of more mines- mankind has been mining gold for millenia. The earth is finite, you know. And as it gets tougher to find gold, it also gets more expensive. Obviously, but water is also finite, and we have not run out. Again, the only thing that is true, is supply and demand determine price. We pretty much have the mined gold still in existence. Gold is not really destroyed in use. It is constantly recycled or resold. The thread title that gold will not drop below $1,000 is a completely unfounded statement. No one knows what will happen. Gasoline shot up to $147 a barrel, and then collapsed with the economy and climbed again. No one really foretold this, Lots of people guess and the guessers crow loudly in the news. Those who were wrong keep their mouths shut. Gold may drop by more than half suddenly, for a number of reasons. Or it may skyrocket. I believe that we are entering a period of accelerated resource depletion as well as diminshing resource discoveries. And it's not just gold. The world's population is not only still growing, but the percentage of "westernized" consumers is growing too. All rare metals, all nonrenewable resources will only increase in value. Interesting article - Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out... Beliefs of what gold are going to do are still fundamentals wild guesses. The world's reserves increase annually, and the production is normally only a small part of this. Although 2006, it illustrates the rising reserves. http://www.zealllc.com/c2007/Zeal020207A.gif And the world's oceans also have an enormous amount of gold - believed possibly 10-20kg/cubic kilometer. Tiny concentrations, but we have no clue what will come around the corner some day. We are not running out of gold. The gold that is mined is still pretty much in existence. Again, it is affected mostly be supply and demand issues.
Current world conditions make it likely, just as in 1979, there was thick gloom. At the moment, it does not appear we will burst forth into a new day as in 1981. Globalization and the fate of the dollar all play a part in gold's role. It looks more likely to never go below 600 again, as John Embry(Sprott) said, instead of 1,000. What did Barrick say their current cost of production was $485?
Louise Yamada says gold possibly in phase 2 with a target of 2k, phase 3 (the mania!) coming afterwards. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F626xeHPkDE
Even lower. The plan is to unload gold to third word countries and then raise rates so that price collapses. It will be another major wealth transfer.