We have had this discussion before so for once I will let Faber answer himself with a quote from one of his newsletters. There are some people who believe that we investment advisors and fund managers should know everything and that our forecasts should always be accurate. The forecasting record of economists, strategists, and analysts is extremely poor. As the late Peter Bernstein observed, âin their calmer moments, investors recognize their inability to know what the future holds. In moments of extreme panic or enthusiasm, however, they become remarkably bold in their predictions: they act as though uncertainty has vanished and the outcome is beyond doubt. Reality is abruptly transformed into that hypothetical future where the outcome is known. These are rare occasions, but they are unforgettable: major tops and bottoms in markets are defined by this switch from doubt to certainty.â
Not really true at all. When price goes way up, mines open up more capacity and produce more gold. Owners of some types of gold sell their stuff to make some $$$. It is the same as any other resource. Gold can soar and gold can collapse. And this is usually not foreseeable. Diamonds that are beyond gem quality can now be man-made relatively cheaply. DeBeers is going to sweat the future. With gold bars/coins with fake centers of equal density, or even the unthinkable, some alchemists figures out how to make gold, or major new finds, there is never a guarantee, only prevailing wisdom.
That was the past, and you know what they say about past vs. future performance. You can find 10 year performances of gold where it declined or did nothing.
What you inferred from my post reminds me of analyzing poetry in an English class. It doesn't matter what you say. It only matters if it's in agreement with the teacher's take on it. And truth be told, I do have a problem with anyone who talks the talk but can't walk the walk.
Below 0.25% isn't possible, but if they aren't raised in the second quarter that would change my view, absolutely.
Ha, there's never been a better example of curve fitting performance than this image. How about that 25 year return, huh?
When the rates start to increase, it's effect on gold will be based on whether they are increased fast enough relative to inflation at that time. I don't think that's predictable. But the Fed has a history of being behind the curve. Bottomline is that there has been a huge expansion of the money supply worldwide. I don't see any point in being negative on gold right now. Chart is bullish. Fundamentals are bullish. OldTrader
Yes, inflation is a lagging variable, but I don't see any evidence of it in the data at this time. Show me the government website that displays an expansion in the money supply, because the only expansion of a government entity was by the fed, and they are winding down those transactions.
You need to do some research at the St. Louis Fed. But here's a link to the monetary base: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BOGAMBNS?cid=124 The monetary base has better than doubled. OldTrader