Yeah and there were pretty clear signals given recently that there are no more cuts coming from the Fed and maybe in increase in 6 months.
oil commodities will keep going higher even if the fed doesn't cut anymore. If it is so obvious that this isn't true then short.
Unfortunately we have to trade on bids and asks in the live market and not fantasy prices that make sense to our subjective perception of how things should be.
I think the economy is basing and we should see a rebound here in a few months. Oil is going under $100 by mid summer Dollar strengthening Unemployment OK, not gonna get any worse. Retail sales strong, GDP strong(er). Other than car sales, where do you see a contraction?
If watching the short term rate is the only thing you need know in order to profit in currency, everyone would be rich. Just buy currency with high rate, and short the low one. The dollar will go down lower. It's the same reaction that people are released today when oil down over $3. They totally forgot just a month again, it was over $10 cheaper.
Makloda, While you are preaching 200% truth, you gotta relax a bit. Sounds like the hoards of ET are getting under your skin lately. If everyone knew (and bet on) the reality of the game, the rules would change pretty fast. Don't see that happening any time soon IMO.
Our local paper has reported higher home sales for 3 straight months. April was a 23% y-o-y change. The rents and tenets on the commercial property that I own in Scottsdale and Reno have stabilized. One makes a big mistake by listening to the "if it bleeds it leads" media.