Extremely simple strategies with > 100% annual return

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by jcl, Feb 1, 2012.

  1. jcl

    jcl

    Yes, I optimized insofar as 1000 gave a better result than 500 and 2000, and looked better in the code. This strategy is not for trading, it was just the simplest that I found. For really trading it, it had to be professionally optimized and walk forward tested, and some better exit had to be programmed than the simple stop.
     
    #31     Feb 1, 2012
  2. ssrrkk

    ssrrkk

    Right, all EMAs and SMAs are low pass filters as well.
     
    #32     Feb 1, 2012
  3. jcl

    jcl

    Yes, but EMAs and SMAs have a very different filter response curve than a standard lowpass filter. They also lag. A 100 bar SMA has a 50 bar lag. The lag of a lowpass filter depends on its steepness, but is usually far less than the lag of a moving average.
     
    #33     Feb 1, 2012
  4. ssrrkk

    ssrrkk

    what is a "standard" low pass filter? what kind of response curve does it have? are you sure there are no windowing artifacts resulting in a sinc like response? are you using an FIR filter?
     
    #34     Feb 1, 2012
  5. Presumably that's your widows-and-orphans program. Real men trade 1000:1...
     
    #35     Feb 1, 2012
  6. jcl

    jcl

    A standard lowpass filter has a frequency response that looks like a horizontal line that bends down at the cutoff frequency. You can see an example here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lowpass

    In comparison, an EMA has a frequency response that first goes down sharply, without the horizontal part, and then tapers out. I don't have website with such a curve, though.

    I'm not using a FIR but a 2 pole lowpass filter, and indeed have some problems with artifacts, but it's good enough for filtering prices.
     
    #36     Feb 1, 2012
  7. ssrrkk

    ssrrkk

    okay, it sounds like you know what you are doing, but I am not fully convinced that a first order RC filter (aka EMA) is so much worse than a second order one. But it could be true.
     
    #37     Feb 1, 2012
  8. You optimized some trivial system and you got very good results. Nothing new about that. One problem is that this type of non-linear models are very sensitive to initial conditions. They are chaotic in a sense. This is the main reason they do not work in practice. Specifically, if you start from a nice peak and you get a good downtrend you have a cushion to work with. If you do not get the trend but choppy action for a while, you accumulate losses without a cushion. Thus, timing and initial conditions plus the fact that optimum parameter values change constantly turn these systems into big losers 99% of the time.

    Every trader with little experience knows not to waste time looking at such systems.
     
    #38     Feb 1, 2012
  9. promagma

    promagma

    I like how your platform is built on Gamestudio. It was great fun back in 1996 making little games :)

    No idea it was still around.
     
    #39     Feb 1, 2012
  10. Number of trades per day isn't as important as your usual target range. Unless you're only making a couple of ticks per trade, the notion of commission and slippage ruining your pnl is hogwash...:)

    Lets also not forget that slippage is usually ONE TICK on high volume contracts. That one tick of course happens on the buy side.
     
    #40     Feb 1, 2012