Extreme PE's "wow"

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Trexticle, Dec 5, 2009.

  1. I didn't realize how high pe's had got for S&P. This is just shocking. It seems that there are some very dangerous markets and extreme markets out there now. None of it makes any sense. Not good.

  2. Tide31


    Trex, we covered this at length on a previous thread. In a recession PE #'s are skewed coming out of it. Forward looking PE's are closer to the 20 level. Slightly higher than historical, but profit margins have been greater than anticipated in the last earnings cycle warranting slightly higher valuations.
  3. S2007S


    Speaking of PE ratios check out VNO:

    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18

    (NYSE: VNO)

    After Hours: 70.33 Up 0.14 (0.20%) 5:31pm ET
    Last Trade: 70.19
    Trade Time: Dec 4
    Change: Up 1.89 (2.77%)
    Prev Close: 68.30
    Open: 69.32
    Bid: N/A
    Ask: N/A
    1y Target Est: 62.38
    Day's Range: 68.93 - 70.56
    52wk Range: 27.01 - 70.67
    Volume: 3,532,172
    Avg Vol (3m): 2,857,220
    Market Cap: 12.60B
    P/E (ttm): 1,276.18
    EPS (ttm): 0.06
    Div & Yield: 2.60 (3.80%)
  4. jnorty


    p/e's on tons of stocks are absurd. fdx and cat are trading at 30 plus times 2010 earnings.profit margins will be under pressure for years to come and theres very little rev growth.as 2010 progresses it will become clear the us is another japan with huge taxes and stagnant growth
  5. Banjo


  6. So what you are saying is that earnings for S&P companies are supposed to be so fantastic going forward that the actual PE ratio should drop to 20, I assume next quarter? Otherwise the prices per share would have to drop significantly from where they are to hit that actual 20 if earnings don't increase.
  7. Tide31


    Yes, because of all the writeoffs and charges etc.. Earnings were dramatically lower this year. Many had neg. earnings because of this which skews index p/e. I could go on with Econ 101, or you could just google the 1000's of stories about this phenomenom coming out of a recession.
  8. Assuming that chart is accurate, it shows PEs in and coming out of several recessions, all of which appear to be at least an order of magnitude lower than the current levels.
  9. Jander


    Yes, negative earnings + writeoffs = green shoots
  10. Threads like this are proof there are tons of people who don't know what they are buying (or not buying, in this case).

    Let's repeat: The value of an asset is the present value of all of its future cash flows.

    That means it has nothing to do with the past. Not 'little', but nothing. PAST = meaningless.

    Thus, one would be wise to conclude any 'analyst' who presents a trailing PE chart as a reason to buy or sell something might be worth discounting/disregarding.

    By this same logic of the original poster, a noncumulative preferred that has one temporary period of below breakeven cashflow is suddenly near worthless.
    #10     Dec 6, 2009