Extrapolating dividends

Discussion in 'Options' started by fuqs, Aug 2, 2018.

  1. sle

    sle

    Well, "doh" :) Think about it, for a European option it's just a matter of assuming a conservative-enough dividend drop and making sure you are not right on top of the ex-date (right before for -c/+p, right on for +c/-p). If I was pricing American, I'd be SO careful about ex-dates since you are carrying real risk to these dates.


    PS. I should have added physical delivery to the list of requirements too.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 4, 2018
    #21     Aug 4, 2018
  2. To be honest that's those cases I would have got some insight ;).
     
    #22     Aug 4, 2018
  3. fuqs

    fuqs

    Thanks a lot for your replies. I'm just wondering about two things:

    How do you adjust forward price for dividend tax rates?
    If there is a listed market up until 3 years and you want to price 4y, would use still use historicall growth rates somehow or extrapolate implied dividends?
    Why for longer terms proportional dividends are preferred?
     
    #23     Aug 5, 2018
  4. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    The fundamental issue with AAPL over the long run is if it becomes a different company in 4 years. There is a well known trade that performed poorly because the buyers of vol did not see this.

    If I could buy AAPL divs at flat, I would do it all day long.
     
    #24     Aug 5, 2018
  5. sle

    sle

    Indeed, though in 2008 the firm was happy to have it, IIRC (do you remember differently?) Of course, it blew out 2 successive heads of EqD and pretty much everyone involved.
     
    #25     Aug 5, 2018
  6. fuqs

    fuqs

    Does anyone have any other ideas?
     
    #26     Aug 7, 2018