Exploring GordonTheGekko's "guessing" strategy

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Archin, Nov 25, 2011.

  1. Archin

    Archin

    What does everyone think of this method? I tend to think that if you're taking random entries you can still do well, but you probably should have an edge in your exit.
     
  2. Good edges from my little knowledge, are a dime a dozen. A percent would do for a exit in the case of his strategy.

    "Do your research and take a stand. If you are wrong, get out."
     
  3. oraclewizard77

    oraclewizard77 Moderator

    The problem I see is noise and commission. For example, most instruments especially ES don't trend in one direction in a straight line. They may continue to move up and down while forming a candle. The up and down movement of forming a candle is meaningless, and only after a candle is formed, can there be understanding if the time frame is higher than 1 min since unlike some traders, I consider 1 min to be noise.

    So for example, the market can easily move 2 ticks against you before moving up. So you get to the point of over trading trying to catch trends.

    Also, the other issue is commission, you don't just lose 2 ticks on a loss, you lose on commission.

    Finally for me, I would either need a high win% system where I can have a equal stop and target, or a 40% - 50% system where I let a winner run.
     
  4. I agreed that guessing the direction is as good as you used so called TA, as either method you are using, you are not any better than flipping a 50% coin.

    A stop loss of 2-3 tick (plus commission) is a sure loss approach. Noise will kick you out for sure.