Allthough NVT has released record results (see: http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=179528&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=636715&highlight=) showing the gigantic growth potential of this market, the stock has lost more than 7% since 1300 EST. Quite unintelligible reaction to these results!
You ever hear of a paper map ? or Thomas Guides or etc etc etc ? Most people still use paper maps and unless this technology becomes less than about 5 dollars to use and as portable as a map i.e. doesn't need batteries, I dont see this being as big as $soft. Maps are already a commodity and most people know how to use them to navigate. These companies will need to develop the markets to be much larger than they are now and bring the price points way down before people will use these technologies en masse. Dont see it happening for many years ..... if at all.
Paper? You mean that stuff made from wood? You can't compare that! Navigation technology is not to replace papermaps, but it is a new technology. That's the same as to say, telephones are unnecessary because of letters. Just imagine the applications which are possible, when you combine a GPS receiver and a 3G cellphone, that is connected to the web. When you are underway in downtown your phone will not only show you the way to your destination and warn you of traffic jams or delayed subways, but tell you, when your buddies are within a certain range, maybe when you pass some store, your phone will tell you, that they have special offers or you could be offered some musical tickets. All this is based on maps, which come only from NVT or TATL. Of course TATL and NVT won't become as huge as Microsoft, but their growth in the next years will be comparable to Microsoft. As I mentioned before, most cell phones will come with an integreated GPS receiver in near future, so the platform for location based services will be available soon. Maybe these services won't be spread that fast in the US, since the mobile communication market is underdeveloped compared to European countries, where more than 50% of the population own cellphones. But anyway only the development of the car navigation market assures three-digit growth rates in the next years for NVT and TATL. Nav systems will come with new cars as standard equipment as air conditioning does nowadays.
Even though NVT past earnings performance was exaggerated by a one time plus adjustment to earnings, it is still a stock that has some nice volatility & buying interest. Not sure bout the investment but this guy swings.
For daytrading activities NVT is certainly the better choice. Trading volumes of TATL are mostly too small for some quick trades. But I understand myself as longterm investor anyway. By the way, Google today announced buying Keyhole (they have a really cool application also for home users: http://www.keyhole.com/body.php?h=products&t=keyhole2LT) and guess where the map data comes from! Yes, it is GDT and GDT was bought by TATL in 2Q. Read the full story at http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=internetNews&storyID=6631227 You will see, Google search results will be associated with geographical information in a year or two. Then you will be able of limiting searching to your area or whatever. Just wanted to give you another example, how NVT and TATL's map data will be used just everywhere!
look I know all about this: one of my firms writes the software for the devices you mention. The point I am making is that, yes this is wonderful technology but most people just dont need it. Thus, future growth for these technologies requires two things: the companies need to create a market (or new markets) for these technologies and the success of this will largly be based upon large reductions in the price of these technologies. Essentially, companies will need to give away the devices and give away the access fees for use of the technology. Until these things happen mass adoption wont be there ..... .. And even then people dont always accept the technology if they really dont need it and/or it really is not faster and easier to use than erxisiting technologies.
This market isn't going to grow exponentially like the personal computer market. People use navigation in their cars only when they are going on long road trips or when they are going to a place they haven't visited before, but most people use their cars to get to work and go shopping. These are routine places that don't need NAV. The Navigation revolution has already past, it started with the boating industry and it is at a point at which it is becoming a commodity item on new cars (except Neons ). Entering this industry doesn't have high barriers. The GPS signal is free and the rest of the hardware is off the shelf. The only thing a company has to do to enter this field is write the software and purchase map data or get it for almost next to nothing from state agencies. What does this mean? It means that it will become a low margin industry like the consumer audio entertainment industry is today. But of course this has nothing to do with the short term tradability of the stock you mentioned...I just wouldn't invest in it.
Sorry, but you don't see the wood from the trees! nav systems won't serve to lead you to a certain destination, but they will accompany and assist you - wether in your car or as pedestrian. Future nav systems will warn you of dangerous spots, of weather situations (e.g. fog) ahead or of traffic jams. DaimlerChrysler is developing a function to warn following traffic after accidents and even after immediate braking, which indicates dangerous situations. TATL has already integrated speed limit information for German highways in their database and newer nav systems warn you when you break the limit. Even the position of stationary speed traps are already available as addon (provided by third-parties). Navigation systems are not about guidance anymore, but about security! This is complete mischief! The map data, which TATL and NVT have, would cost estimated $ 500 mio to create, which I would call a very high barrier and there is no state agency, that has such detailed complete maps. TATL and NVT's maps contain not only the position of a road, but every single lane, information about road quality and average traffic density and the time it takes to pass the road. Further you need to know where oneways are and much much more (see: http://www.theautochannel.com/N/news/2004/10/20/258073.html?{LF}&)! And not to forget millions of socalled points of interest, like gas stations, hotels, hospitals etc. Your view on this is very naive. The map database of NVT and TATL can't be compared with any existent map. If your car nav system had only the official state maps, it would only be able of calculating the shortest route and guide you through side streets. Setting up this databases has cost millions and took more than a decade and is way more complicated than you imagine! You also forget the other use for these maps except for navigation applications. Parcel services and hauliers can calculate their delivery routes much more efficently with this map data. Further fleet managment will become much more comfortable. Not to forget the use for 911-services (see: http://home.businesswire.com/portal...d=news_view&newsId=20041025005814&newsLang=en) Also all the maps on all the major web portals are based either on NVT or TATL's maps. When you still don't understand the great moment of this technology, just have a look at the Google news search: http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=teleatlas http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&ned=us&q=teleatlas After yesterday's and today's unintelligible price loss of NVT and TATL, NVT has recovered again and TATL will do in the next days. So tomorrow will be an opportunity to get on the train (far) northwards. see http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=TATL.DE&d=t and also see this forecast http://www.happyyuppie.com/cgi-bin/de/search.pl?isin=NL0000233948&typnr=4
You answered a lot of your own concerns about these technologies. Humans essentially only need food, water, shelter, sleep & sex, yet look at the luxuries of today's world that have been turned into necessities. Whether Navigation technology is vital or not is not important. Mass consumers are morons and can easily be convinced into turning a luxury into a necessity. Example, the cell phone. The question is not whether this technology will thrive, it obviously it will as long as the hierachy of needs keeps going in the same direction it has been. The question is when is either of these companies a good buy, if you are looking for investment. BTW, as a trader of NVT, I can tell that quite a few serious buyers have been taking in huge blocks.