June 1st during the 1984-2008 period have a >90% probability of a positive finish. (% daily change). Daily range during these days (June 1st) average around 2.4%. Hard to say what will happen on the back of the GM news though. If GM files on Monday(bar some shocking weekend change), and market rallies to a positive finish, it doesn't make sense at all (logically), but the probabilities might be in favor of a positive close. I guess we'll see Monday if the statisticians prevail over the logical thinkers. Will be interesting.
Come on guys. Anyone that is trading futures should be paying attention. GM is out of the Dow monday. So, there was some major re-balancing. There was also a major re-balancing in the russell 2000. Plus the credit default swaps on GM get triggered as soon as they file bankruptcy, so debtholders, ie major banks will get a windfall.
All of that is probably true, but it's not like major market participants realized it at 2:45 EST, Friday afternoon. They've known for days if not weeks how things are going to play out. Some had a voice in the decision process. Here is another guy's opinion: http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/05/goldman-sachs-principal-transactions_29.html Some of the comments are interesting too.
With all the respect to what everyone said. This is my lesson. ***** DO NOT LEAVE YOUR DESK EVEN 2:50PM Friday ****** My ass was sitting all day and decided leave @ 2:45PM because it was friday and not much action was going on.
SAC cleared the books of all the major MMers in SPY and it spread to the futures. They did it into the re-balance.
me too.. i dont care what the reason was, if i was sitting ready to trade i would've hopped right in. such a dumb mistake to miss out on this move.
Agree, Talk of GM getting removed from the Dow has been talked about for months, the rebalancing in my opinion had nothing to do with the last 5 minute rally.