Explain why the Sep./Dec. spread for ES and NQ is different

Discussion in 'Index Futures' started by stock777, Sep 11, 2002.

  1. mgkrebs

    mgkrebs

    spx dividend yield 1.5%
    ndx dividend yield 0%.

    Looks like the spx yields about a zillion times what the ndx does.
     
    #11     Sep 11, 2002
  2. Def is correct; and I will take the credit for the wisecrack ...
     
    #12     Sep 11, 2002
  3. Miki

    Miki

    Metooxx is a man of few (usually well chosen ) words.

    I like it.

    :)
     
    #13     Sep 12, 2002
  4. Disparate time spreads between contracts occurs in the futures markets between contracts as an abnormality. This used to occur in the Chicago Futures markets in the Bond and early traded SPX pits, until it gained notarity in the B School discussions, and others began to smell opportunity.

    Simply put, no one can give a definitive answer, just suppositions for disparate time spreads beyond a reasonable (read historical norm for that specific futures contract). Here are a few of the more commonly proffered explanations:
    1) Dividends and their effect upon pricing, time value and yield (Interest Rate return, time to dividend, cash equivalent, etc.)

    2) No active attention / trading in that time series because all activity usually occurs in the front month

    3) excessively high volitility and risk premium associated with trading the far month contract on the NQ, and no one being able to reasonably predict with any form of stability / reliability where these Internet "Disappearing Acts" will be priced.

    There are other suppositions, but between these three I think it just about covers it. Hey, wasn't "Disappearing Acts" a movie?
     
    #14     Sep 12, 2002
  5. Your thesis?
     
    #15     Sep 12, 2002
  6. Makes sense when explained in detail. No divs on the NQ so no big debit there.

    I referred to wisecracks and short answers. Clearly wasn't calling your answer a wisecrack.
     
    #16     Sep 12, 2002
  7. def

    def Sponsor

    no offense taken - my attempt at humor.

    I didn't check but I'd bet there are 4 points more of dividends in the SPX index that will be paid out beteen sep/dec rrelative to NDX.

    this really isn't rocket science.
     
    #17     Sep 12, 2002