Expiration week plays

Discussion in 'Options' started by akivak, Jun 22, 2010.

  1. spindr0

    spindr0

    Past performance of a finite sample of 28 stocks is no guarantee of future performance. It's no edge. Ever hear of the Super Bowl indicator?
     
    #11     Jun 25, 2010
  2. The SET is jammed up more often than not, adding to the bias. Buy Thursday's close in SPX.
     
    #12     Jun 25, 2010
  3. akivak

    akivak

    There are no guarantees in trading. it's not a guarantee, it's a statistical advantage. Nobody can guarantee you it will work in 100% of weeks, but 70-80% of cases should be good enough assuming the data is correct.
     
    #13     Jun 25, 2010
  4. spindr0

    spindr0

    It isn't an edge or a statistical advantage.

    I could arbitrarily pick any useless canned indicator (RSI, MACD, Stochastic, Commodity Channel Index, whatever) and run it against the universe of optionable stocks for a given time period and cull out the ones that yielded a 100% gain while the market did 20%. I guarantee you that going forward you would have hardly any chance of duplicating that 100% performance and just as good a chance of losing money. It's no more than curve fitting.
     
    #14     Jun 25, 2010