Italy....... Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University. Gets better............. If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4. So Italy and real numbers, just proved right
" Deaths where C19 was tested Positive " Any death, where C19 is present is getting counted to get the numbers up. Italy just proved and admitted 25x's lower than so 4% turns into 0.16% ( going to go lower I'd bet ) and still Snowflakes too damn scared to understand math's and see logic. Snowflakes, admit they've screwed up because there stupid, hell no!!
Again, South Korea --Germany too I think-- is representative of the correct numbers because there is wide spread and more less comprehensive testing there. Death rate there 1.7 % of Covid infections. But it will be up to twice as great a death rate elsewhere because of lack of testing which allows non-symptomatic to be caught early and quarantined. Non-symptomatic positive doesn't mean necessarily these same people won't become ill, extremely ill, or die from covid. It simply means non-symptomatic at the time of testing -- incubation period is typically 4 to 7 days. Can be a little shorter or longer though. You have the idea that many are infected who never develop significant symptoms. This is not common, although it is reported that most young children who become infected bounce back quite quickly. You should get tested for antibodies, because there is a good chance that what you had earlier was some other virus and now you think you are immune, when in fact you may not be.. Good luck, I hope you do not get seriously ill or die. The current death rate among known covid cases in the U.S. is currently above 3%. Germany has to lowest death rate so far reported at ~1.3 % . Germany has excellent testing so their death rate, like south Korea's, is probably a reliable measure of the true rate in populations of similar demographics and level of care. Germany also has very aggressive treatment of patients both hospitalized and non-hospitalized. There is a tipping point in the course of the disease at 5-7 days, at that point a patient's health typically improves or rapidly deteriorates. If you are in a hospital at the moment deterioration occurs, you have a much better chance of survival. Germany follows home patients very closely so that they can transfer them to a hospital if there are early signs of deterioration. That approach seems to be saving lives even though Germany is one of the hardest hit countries. Italy has a double digit death rate from Covid, and I think Spain as well. The average age of covid patients in Germany is11 years younger than in Spain or Italy. It is my guess that this is a major factor in the much lower death rate in Germany, and i think the other huge factor is testing. They are doing well over 300K tests a day in Germany. They test if there is the slightest indication of exposure to the virus, symptoms or no symptoms. Germany, unlike the U.S., also has a very active and advanced public health system available to everyone, whereas the U.S. depends on "treat and street" for 10% of its citizens. The number of treat and street patients is going to balloon with so many now losing their jobs and their health care at the same time.* I expect the final death toll from Covid in the U.S. to exceed 3%. It's already above that. And it is more than just a lack of testing in the U.S. that will keep that number high, but that is certainly a key factor... ______________________ *Why the U.S. insists on attaching health care to employment has always been a mystery to me. It makes no sense whatsoever; yet we have so many politicians wanting to preserve employer provided healthcare! What will it take for these politicians to see the light! Maybe this Pandemic will do it. If so, then at least so good will have come from it.
AGAIN FFS getting annoyed by the lack of intelligence around here. The current death rate among known covid cases in the U.S. is currently above 3%. KNOWN being the operative word, that's only valid, if nobody else has it at all, as we know about 50% have it and aren't even away that drops to 1.5% and ~90% have it mild and don't go to hospital and therefore don't get tested, then <0.15% fairly simple. If you think it's going to exceed 3% of total population, then you really have to been watching too much scare media, switch the TV off and think for yourself. Most of the deaths are lies, Died and Tested positive for, I'd like the true numbers, died on a ventilator unable to breathe or due to no ventilator being available. Give it up, world is catching onto the lie, then you lot are all going to look very stupid having you know bankrupted everywhere and put yourselves out of jobs over <0.15%
You're not being realistic in your numbers because you are assuming a large number of infected but a symptomatic that will not go on to develop symptoms and die at the observed rate. Where we have accurate data, that data indicates you are wrong to assume that asymptomatic when tested means that they will remain asymptomatic. But the worst assumption you are making is that physicians don't usually know what people die from, or worse yet, you may be assuming some left wing conspiracy to lump all deaths in with CoVid deaths. If so, this is lunatic thinking.
I have a brilliant idea. Why don't you give us a source for this number. In other words, how do we know that? Anything based on data will do. By the way its probably higher than 50% of infected people that are unaware they are infected during the first couple days of the incubation period. I'll help you out. Here is the data you should be looking for. You will need testing data from samples drawn randomly, from a population were there is a significant infection rate, showing that about 50% of positive observations included in your randomly drawn samples* "never" develop symptoms where "never," say, is defined as three weeks. All you have to do is follow all the positive observations for three weeks and note how many of them developed symptoms. It's not difficult. Now go forth and find your data. Of course I maintain that the data coming out of Germany and South Korea is sufficient to infer what the result of the experiment i have outlined for you would be , even though the samples in those two countries are unlikely to have been drawn completely randomly. In my view, testing in these two countries was so extensive, as to sufficiently approximate testing the entire universe of observations, that one can reliably infer the result of "your" experiment, and it isn't going to be anywhere near 50%. In other words, there are not twice as many people infected with CoVid-19 than we realize. __________________ *the sample size you will need is dependent on the number of positives you find. You'll need a good number of positives to get a reliable result, and you need to use a well established test that's been shown to produce a low number of false positives. Assuming false negatives are randomly distributed, for your purposes false negatives are not important. And most importantly you can not select for people with symptoms or people without symptoms you have to select from the entire adult population randomly.
You have the same data, best being Italy, Italy are literally saving, the death rate was 25x's over rated, there saying that and there in it kneck deep. You have no ability to allow for anything other than tested, like if not tested then is not real and can ignore. Yes you've all screwed up, you've been conned with media hype, accept your wrong, stop forcing on mass the government to make stupid decisions and be happy it's 25x's less.