we have our own ET expert in housing on here.. wonder where he is... "Old Traitor" he is an old timer... salty old guy.. thinks he is the jesse livermore of housing. ... he is what we call a perma-housing-bull. LOL LOL LOL
As long as prices keep closing lower than previous month's close it would be naive to expect a bottom IMO. A bottom based on what? Are interest rates going down? <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=1509077>
"Has anyone noticed that there is at least one "expert" each week either on Bloomberg or CNBC who attempts to call a bottom in the housing market?" I suppose when the "experts" say it is going to get worse, again and again then time to go shopping. All the "experts" need to say it together though. Bottoms should appear on repeated bad news.
Look, I am a real estate investor and broker and I have been in the real estate business for over 11 years. The "experts" on bloomberg and CNBC that are talking about a bottom in the real estate market have no idea what they are talking about. Atleast in southern california there is no bottom in sight. We have so much inventory that we can't even give it away, so in my opinion there is no bottom to this real estate market atleast until the end of 2008
Sort of like what my Sis, who is a Flipper, says about Florida. They might WISH there was a bottom, but until the excesses are soaked up by people that can pay moving in, or torn down, net of what more gets built in the meantime, the problem remains. Dec of 2008 if the economy doesn't keel over, which it has a habit of doing post elections. I think the downturn could last 15 to 20 years, myself, as boomers retire and need to cash out. Sort of like Japan since the 80's.
According to this chart, real estate seems to move down for as long as it moved up. So if the up trend was 1997-2005, then the down trend will be 2006-2014. http://www.behindthemortgage.com/photos/uncategorized/global_real_estate.jpg