Has anyone noticed that there is at least one "expert" each week either on Bloomberg or CNBC who attempts to call a bottom in the housing market? Each time they call a bottom then more bad news rolls out. Im amazed that the homebuilders are still trading where they are. You have the CEO of one company stating on public television that the next 12 months will "suck", every earnings release from a hombuilder has "sucked"and then the sub-prime mess which seems to have a new twist each week. Its one thing to call a top in the stock market, but to call a bottom in the housing market seems extremely brave indeed...
Mostly talking their own book, hoping to somehow influence public opinion and thus stop the decline... Apparently only a small percentage of the ARMs have reset + we've not seen the part of the cycle where sellers drop prices to insure their property moves. Could be that "the bottom" is a lonnnnng way down yet.
Of course, many of us don't even talk about the "bottom callers" anymore because they've been calling bottom for a year. Did you really just take notice of those idiots?
the real estate boom wa akin to the tech bubble of 2000.only difference is stocks are mych more liquid than real estate so it will take much longer to rid the market of excess. the day i saw a show on cabe called "flip this house",i knew it was a market top. remember all the housewive's giving stock recommendations in 1999? it was the same thing with real estate.
They'll be able to call a bottom again Monday and Tuesday. I'm sure they will find some way to put a positive spin on what are really abysmal numbers compared to last year's. They avoid mentioning last year's numbers, let alone 2 yrs ago.
Maybe they don't realize that lots of boomers are retiring early as they get booted from their jobs by the strong economy. I think that could easily continue a couple years, by which time the big flood of boomers will be looking to sell. EVERYONE was told they could buy a nice home, and then sell it when they retire, using some of the money to buy a condo or small place in a nice retirement area, and the rest as savings to live on. Well, I hate to say it, but anytime EVERYONE assumes ANYTHING, it gets proven wrong. If EVERYONE is selling, prices will be abysmal, and what they thought of as "retirement savings you can live in", will turn into an anchor of a big home that needs to be heated, cooled, maintained, and taxes paid. God help them if they still owe money on it.
Yeah they are living in some overpriced house somewhere with some funny bunny no interest loan and they ain't about to diss on their real estate. John
I'll be waiting to see what they say after the July housing and lending #s come out. By then this recent turmoil in rates will be cooked in and the answer will be dreadful. A collapse of any recovery prospect occurred this month, just the same as happened last June in the rate move. The lending banks, title insurers and related real estate services people all know this. I hear no upbeat assessments out of this quarter - save for high end markets. IMO the member Fed banks in each region will be screaming bloody murder at any rate hike talk.