Experts Analyze my performance

Discussion in 'Professional Trading' started by hulton.bright, May 24, 2009.

  1. Its been 100 days since I started my new account and I decided its now time to revisit and evaluate the performance. The purpose of posting here is to see what the experts have to say.

    I would appreciate honest and critical comments to improve my performance and minimize risk at the same time. I believe experts can look through the numbers therefore I wont be providing unnecessary details.

    This account was used to daytrade crude oil futures. The details are below along with equity curve.

    Portfolio Performance

    Number of winning days : 68
    Number of losing days: 23
    Average Winning day: $1536
    Average Losing Day: $1253
    Average Daily Profit(over 100 days): $538
    Starting Balance: $66,519
    Ending Balance: $120,863
    % Profit (over 100 days): 81.70%

    Sharpe Ratio Calculation

    Average monthly return: 14.08%
    Annualized Return: 169%
    Annualized Std, Dev: 61%
    Current 6mo T-Bill yield: 0.29%
    Sharpe Ratio: 2.76

    By the way my target for the year end is $300,000.

    The equity curve is attached below. I would love to see where my performance stands compared with other traders out here.
  2. A per trade breakdown with shorts vs longs would be more useful than day by day.
    To me, with the move in crude the big thing to zoom in on is if your counter trend trades added to the bottom line or if part of the success of the strategy was simply being long biased.
  3. kxvid


    What are you selling. lol :)
  4. A 20-25% peak to trough DD in a daytrading strategy is simply too much risk.
  5. Its almost impossible for a daytrader to summarize each individual trades. I had a bias (long one) and everyone has. Approximately I would say that 70% of trades were long while 30% being short. However if you check the chart of crude from Jan 09 onwards it isnt going up.

    While daytrading in crude, your bias wont be of much help to you simply because of the huge moves in either direction.

    And I am not selling anything.


    The first useful reply I was looking for. Poor money management and lack of a stop order were the main reason for that DD. Thankfully I learned from my mistake and did not repeated it.
    Still do you have any other recommendations?
  6. Your APD will decrease with stops, which you already know. It will be interesting to see the curve going forward with proper stops. I assume it's a mean-reversion strategy?
  7. You started your new account 100 days ago. How´s performance for your old account...:confused:
  8. Dominic


    Hypo or real trades being placed??
  9. vikana

    vikana Moderator

    I think this looks good, assuming its actual trade results, and not simulated.

    I would like to see the biggest losing day, and how often you have seriously bad days (such as loss > 2*avg loss).

    if you don't have to many nasty days, it's looking good too me.
  10. Put your chart on semi log and add the market ATR. Chart will show convergence for the two reasons below

    You are giving up a lot of market's volatility when market is at R or S.

    Your sensitivity to market sentiment (or lack thereof) is poor as well.
    #10     May 24, 2009