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# expectancy

Is the following correct?

Win percentage 1%
Win rate 60%

Loss percentage 1%
Loss rate 40%.

expectancy = (1% x 60%) - (1% x 40%)

The expectancy is 0.2% per trade.

2. ### deepitm

You are correct.

Thank.

Is 0.2% expectancy good for a day trader?

4. ### Thunderdog

Seems rather thin, ADX. It would not take much to upset the apple cart. But then, I'm not really the guy to ask.

5. ### deepitm

I'm not a daytrader so I can't say if it is good or not. Make sure you factor in your transaction costs. I created a table in Excel to show different win/loss rates and the associated profit factor. I also attached a chart of the same table. The line in the chart represents the breakeven point. You want to be above the line to be profitable.

Pw = winning percentage
PL= loosing percentage
Aw= average win
AL= average loss
Win % Loss % Breakeven Aw/AL
0.10 0.90 9.00
0.15 0.85 5.67
0.20 0.80 4.00
0.25 0.75 3.00
0.30 0.70 2.33
0.35 0.65 1.86
0.40 0.60 1.50
0.45 0.55 1.22
0.50 0.50 1.00
0.55 0.45 0.82
0.60 0.40 0.67
0.65 0.35 0.54
0.70 0.30 0.43
0.75 0.25 0.33
0.80 0.20 0.25
0.85 0.15 0.18
0.90 0.10 0.11
0.95 0.05 0.05

As an example, if your average win is \$300 and your average loss is \$100, then Aw divided by AL (also called the profit factor) is 3. From the table you would then need a winning percentage of 25% to breakeven and >25% to be profitable.

Your original question had a 60/40 win/loss rate. From the table this would require a profit factor (Aw/AL) of 0.67 to breakeven and greater than 0.67 to be profitable. Yours was 1.0 so it is profitable.

6. ### deepitm

Here is the chart

• ###### expectancy.gif
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25.6 KB
Views:
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