I agree, and I'll add that it's impossible to pick the "high probability trade", and discard the other trades (which are still probable, but not highly probable), if emotions are part of your trading. If you can't control your emotions, and you don't use a system, then your hope will tend to make you overestimate every time the probabilities in your favour, and you will pick the wrong trades. Moving averages don't have emotions, and I find that's a good way to decide when to enter and exit a trade. Trend lines, instead, have emotions, because you're the one who draws them.