I also listened to the video and was only expecting the high level stuff. Basically, my understanding of why he's making the bet is to bring attention, to sound the alarms, that it's too late, the global banking system will have a major crisis As much as I want bitcoin to go to $1M, I don't want a full banking system collapse in the next 90 days Bitcoin will eventually go to $1M and higher but it's better if it's through organic global growth adoption, my estimated timeline is 5-10 years With the latest news that all the world's central banks are coordinating a massive efforts to provide liquidity to help the banks and prevent them from failing, that will provide fuel for the bitcoin and cryptos bull market to continue
I honestly don't understand why the system has to collapse for bitcoin to reach 1 million. Imagine if some painting that is expected to sell for 2 million sells for 100 million. Maybe the entire art world gets repriced... so what! Now if the fear is that bitcoin going to $1M sucks money out of the banking system, it doesn't matter as the Fed already said any bank can exchange any bonds and get full value, so depositors can flee! LOL... Plus, maybe getting to 1 million will be fast because we run out of sellers. We don't need hundreds of billions of dollars moving into the space every day like I saw some dumb calculations. We just need people to refuse to sell their bitcoin and for prices to start skipping levels. Its like housing. One house on your street sells for 200k over asking, and all of a sudden the entire street is repriced. It only took 1 god damn sale. It doesn't mean millions had to flow into housing. Bitcoin liquidity just has to dry up, and price could go up very quickly without too much money coming in. Since bitcoin isn't really propping up any other tradfi market, it shouldn't matter if the price goes up very quickly. Yes, people might get scared out of USD, but USD doesn't rely on crypto. If there was a bitcoin CEO and he said tomorrow each bitcoin is worth 1 million, nothing happens to the regular financial world. Those who hold bitcoin are super rich and can choose to sell some sats, but USD didn't magically stop working. I'm not saying I agree with Balaji and his 90 day bet, but I think most of the arguments against it happening are using a model of how things work in markets of the past. There are absolutely scenarios where this can happen, and especially now more so than ever.
I definitely think bitcoin will reach $1M without the banking system failure... There's a meme going around to the effect "The three scariest words might be Balaji was right" Which is more a play on irony, maybe bitcoin is over $1M or maybe bitcoin is only $700k, but the 3 words are referring to the banking system collapse, not the bitcoin price
More global adoption. More companies, more countries, more people using and owning bitcoins There's about 200 million people in the world that use and own bitcoins. Over time, that will grow into the billions and the price will follow
There is zero utility for POS/legit commerce. It's like opting to use a fax machine over email. Like NFTs/provenance.
Believe it or not, fax machines still have some utility. If you need to get a form sent to a place with a written signature quickly, the fax serves that purpose.