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# Excel worksheet needed for coin toss

Discussion in 'Automated Trading' started by virtualmoney, May 18, 2009.

1. ### virtualmoney

I was wondering if a simple excel worksheet can be created to project the effects of applying different types of betting progressions to a user defined number of coin flip simulations.

The user input a certain amount of capital and he begins with a bet of x% of this capital with a user defined progression set in the simulator, for example
bet ratio 1-2-2-4-2-1 restarting at 1 at any stage if it is a win, and also switching the bet to the opposite side (H or T) at the next throw whenever it is a win but following the progression set on the same side (H or T) if it is a loss.

I am interested to find out what are the maximum number of bets various progressions can enable the betting to go on before implosion, and create some statistics for different sample sizes of each type of progression(user defined).

I would appreciate if anyone can help to create and post this excel worksheet. Thanks.

3. ### syswizard

Let me get this straight:
\$10,000 initial capital
5% bet size
Bet \$1000 Tails, result Tails

When does the progression restart to the beginning ?
I don't quite "get it".

4. ### stevegee58

What's the most you ever lost on a coin toss?

5. ### virtualmoney

follow progression only if it is a loss, if it's a win, go back to 1

6. ### jimbojim

Gambler's fallacy

7. ### travis

I have done it a while ago. I pretended red and black (of the roulette game), or head and tail, are all numbers inferior to 0.5 vs all numbers equal or superior to 0.5. Then I used excel's "rand" function, and produced about 65,000 random numbers.

What came out is that it doesn't make sense to be on red after a few straight blacks, nor of course to bet on head after a few tails. As an example, in all 65000 tests, there were a few sequences of 10 straight red (in my case numbers < 0.5), and after those the ensuing numbers were half red and half black.

8. ### drjekyllus

Why would you use .5 if you were trying to model a roulette wheel?

9. ### Big AAPL

I get it Steve. Good one. Let's hope he doesn't 'just put it back in his pocket with all the other coins'.

10. ### virtualmoney

Stop and re-evaluate the results every 100 runs/bets/trades.
http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/frames_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html
If you set longest run of heads = 5, and do 100 runs 10times... calculate the average number of tosses of the 10times...

Set spreadsheet criteria such that if red or black (H or T) occurs 5 times in a row more than K times e.g.3times within a 100 runs, then leave the trading method/casino game...

#10     May 19, 2009
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