Excel Expectancy (tharp) issue

Discussion in 'Programming' started by jmhunter, Oct 16, 2011.

  1. jmhunter


    This is very basic.. but here is my excel spreadsheet

    http://www.jmhunter.info/ES Log 101011-101311.xlsx

    I'm having issues making the expectancy formula show a good number.. I followed the two equation around page 202, but that one isn't working quite right.. any input?
  2. jmhunter


    (the one that i dont think is working is in red)
  3. jmhunter


    i figured it out.. changed to =AVERAGE( instead of =SUM
  4. What good to you is that number?
  5. jmhunter



    That is tharps def of it.

    I am using it to evaluate my risk, adjust my stops, and understand what I should expect from my system
  6. jmhunter


    -- risk to reward ratio
  7. From that website: "Put another way, expectancy tells you how much you can expect to make on the average, per dollar risked, over a number of trades."

    Why is this guy using a new term - expectancy - for a number that even a ten-year old knows it is the average of all trades?

    Can I also hijack the concept of summation of trades and call it, for example, sumtendency?

    I think this guy presents in a very complicated and incomprehensible way what is clear to every trader who has gone to high school.
  8. N54_Fan


    As mentioned above it is an average of the total R per trade. Add the R's in D column and divide by th enumber of trades. Just gives average R earned per trade.
  9. I don't think you can add the R's because they are different numbers R1, R2,...etc.

    Am I the only one who can see this? I also pointed that out here: