EXAS: Exact Sciences

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Landis82, Oct 12, 2007.

  1. If you crunch the numbers on this company's prospects should their "Pre-Gen" DNA stool cancer screening test become included in the American Cancer Society formal guidelines, this stock could go for one of the biggest upside rides known to mankind!

    Only 27 million shares outstanding and no institutional coverage to speak of. Partnership with LabCorp (LH) whereby EXAS will receive 15-17% licensing fees on each DNA test. FDA approval not needed since this is a lab test.

    Company has applied for MediCare reimbursement and their application has been deemed complete.

    In 2002, 14.2 million people had colonoscopies. 40% were for screening purposes. Very invasive.

    85 million people over the age of 50 in this country. Colorectal cancer is the #2 killer of this age group in the U.S.

    Potential numbers are as follows:

    $300 test
    17% of gross sales = $51 per test

    40% of 14.2 million = 5.7 million potential tests

    5.7 x $51 = $291 million

    $291MM divided by 27 million shares = $10.77 EPS

    If only 1 million tests are done ( instead of the conservative 5.7 million potential referenced in the earlier colonoscopy data from 2002 ), EXAS revenues still come out to $51 million divided by 27 million shares =

    $1.88 per share

    Put a 20 or 30 times medical diagnostic multiple on that number and you can see what kind of upside I am talking about.

    Moreover, LabCorp will be assuming all sales and marketing expenses. EXAS essentially becomes a licensing company of their DNA technology.

    The founder of EXAS, Stanley Lapidus also is the founder of CYTC, which incidentally was bought out recently by Hologic Inc., for $6.2 Billion!

    As always, please do your own due-diligence.
  2. Did anyone take my advice over the weekend?

    Now trading $5.56 and +.72 cents on 483,000 shares before the close.

    :D :D :D
  3. Landis I bought today at $5.20 I know this stock very well. I have been in on their technology since the beginning and I too think the time is now. But I only went 2,200 shares as the market was down 160 at the time!! Great b/o today I'm sure it flies tomorrow. I'm so sorry I didn't catch your thread this weekend nicely done! I could add a lot more, about Gov reimbursement etc, but I don't want to interlope on your fine call. PT- $10 soon.~ stoney
  4. UNLV_TJ


    Damn, great homework!
  5. Great call Wags. Hope you have a boatload.
  6. dhpar


    nice to see this sh$t company finally moving.
    i am not in anymore though - was few years too early ;)
    nice call!
  7. Guys I've been dialing around a bit on this name. I think in 2 months time this will double and could be taken out by a larger player in the diagnostic field. Ultimately if left to roam free this should be up over $20 next year! ~ stoney
  8. This stock has a lot more in it than just $20-$30 IF they get into the American Cancer Society Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines, which have not been updated since early 2003.

    The numbers are absolutely incredible, and LabCorp (LH) picks up the tab on all sales and marketing expenses.

    Results of a study on their 2nd generation version of "Pre-Gen+" are due out shortly, sources tell me.

    As always, do your own due-dilligence.

    $6.17 earlier this morning.
  9. Thanks man.
    Been in this thing since the low 2's.
    Hope you are doing well!
  10. #10     Oct 16, 2007