Implied vol (red line in chart link below) has really taken off on EXAS: http://www.optionistics.com/quotes/stock-prices/EXAS
It has, but it was entirely predictable. The vol must rise over time if the premium is essentially UNCH. Vols always rise over time into these binary-outcome FDA/trial results.
i put on two may 8/10 ratio backspreads... cost me 2 bills.. figuring thats probably the most i can lose.. it could sit at ten.. but highly unlikely .. who knows .. worth a shot.. + BOT 2 EXAS MAY 17 '13 + (2) 10 - (1) 8 Call Call Vertical Spread 1.000 USD SMART 13:27:43 OptTrader 4.62 null
From what I've been reading, upside fv's are closer to 14. It seems like the long is crowded. I like the may 11 or 12 buywrite personally.
I may CC or straddle it off if there is any vola left after the news or it becomes a "long-term investment" i.e. I am underwater.
That's about a billion in mcap. What's surprising is how few shares the inside board members are holding.
This is nothing to be concerned about for two reasons: 1.) The FDA is not requiring any threshold to be achieved for pre-cancer sensitivity. 2.) The 57% sensitivity for pre-cancers is right around what the sensitivity is for the pap smear. But because of the "programmability" of women going for annual pap-smear tests, the 57% sensitivity rises exponentially and cervical cancer winds up being the only cancer to be eradicated thus far. The same will be true for Cologuard and pre-cancers.