EXAS: I sold 1 (one) April $7 put for $45. I'll take 100 shares at $7. If there's a problem they can probably fix it... and if they can't somebody else (e.g. BMS) can buy them and maybe THEY can fix it. Either way it will be a long time before the whole story is told. BTW: Implied Volatility really is that high. You bought the shares outright??? WOW... that's against my religion. I sold an Oct $10 put for $270. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013...News&feedType=RSS&feedName=companyNews&rpc=43 so my April $7 put will produce a 7 - .45 = 6.55 acquisition price while my Oct $10 put will produce a 10 - 2.70 = 7.3 acquisition price. Currently I am showing a premarket price of 6.68 . I got my 'cover' notice from Optionsxpress. If we open at 6.68 my net loss will be $49. This is why I don't plunge into this kind of situation. I think this is a good result, but the people who DO plunge are mostly a bunch of amateurs who are now in a panic. I may just take the 200 shares and wait.
I thought at the time that in the midst of all the euphoria, you were taking a pragmatic view in terms of risk management. The reaction of the market to the data release proves your caution was justified.
Interesting market reaction to EXAS study. Market reaction is negative on interpretation not data. Namely, only 42% versus 57% result, as found by previous study, detetection of pre-cancer polyps up to 1 cm. 2cm targeted 67% sensitivity (ability to find) was reached. EXAS President was just on CNBC so I think pre-market fall will be partially reversed so EXAS might be good for traders. I think he is right that the test will be approved by the FDA and used because there is nob alternative even close. Multi-strike short naked puts (some as naked puts some as covered calls) works. I now hope EXAS stock will close tomorrow at 8.99 so I get maximum numbers of shares. My overall share cost will be around 7.50. Pin to 9.00 means I get the shares with some profit and least use of IB margin for a large position. I think market reaction is irrational but as a purely fundamental value trader there are many irrationally priced stocks that are using up my margin. Interesting for philosophers of science is that I think some of EXAS President's analsysis is wrong because there are methodological problems with the Von Mises sampling definition of probability everybody assumes. It is not true that two 90% tests produce higher than 90% chance of cancer detection. It is true that tests every few years is positive because polyps grow.
Beats me. I sold 10 Apr $6 puts for 40 cents a month ago and bought 'em back on Monday for 25 cents. Booked a smooth $123.44 after commissions and fees. Drinks are on me, boys.
Yeah, I hear you. I'm in Austin, barely 90 minutes from West, which has been partially blown off the map. It seems half our trauma personnel are up there.