EXAS April options mis-priced

Discussion in 'Options' started by vanv0029, Apr 4, 2013.

  1. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    partly it wasn't by design.

    partly it is to ensure I get enough pnl volatility with the fewest number of contracts and shares

    partly to express a view that skew is cheap.
     
    #91     Apr 14, 2013
  2. Collared the preexisting shares?
     
    #92     Apr 14, 2013
  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I added more shares as well.

    So this is my net position. I've seen this story before. I believe the trial will work, but the upside is limited. The Downside however is pretty bad.

    It's not impossible the stock will selloff after a successful result (as fast money dumps in search of another catalyst stock to own).

    There's a lot of optimism here. Even Cramer is touting the shares.
     
    #93     Apr 14, 2013
  4. donnap

    donnap

    No doubt, it'll overshoot hypothetical FV. Pump and dump? And I'm not talking about the colon.

    Worked some stuff Wed-Fri. Not much action in the options, at least not for me. Should see liquidity post event, if only briefly.

    UL seems to be the way to go, with conviction.

    Ended with a small syn. straddle, not by design. And a partial fill to boot. Long 12Cs @ .35 Bullish straddle. Have to consider vol crush as well when hedging.

    Got the other side of the collar, a little, sort of.

    Trading gets so boring. First non-oil trade in a while.

    Timing. Any day now, right?
     
    #94     Apr 14, 2013
  5. There is no Phase 1, Phase 2, or Phase 3 clinical trials.
    The Company is NOT developing a drug.
    Duh.
     
    #95     Apr 14, 2013
  6. I just got done writing 5 talking points about why all of the "above" is wrong, but decided to delete it because it's probably a waste of time educating people that claim that there's a lot of optimism given the current $680 million valuation, let alone mentioning a guy (Cramer) that the institutional crowd couldn't give a rat's ass about.

    If you think that "fast" money is in this name.... or that the upside is "limited" given the multi-BILLION dollar market place that Cologuard is about to penetrate . . .

    Think again.
     
    #96     Apr 14, 2013
  7. donnap

    donnap

    Glad I read it. Thanks. This is an interesting and complex situation and no doubt most of us aren't well versed in it.

    More dd needed, but may consider for the IRA and your post event comments were well noted.

    Just trying to make a little vol play here. Didn't even know the Co. existed until the OP.
     
    #97     Apr 14, 2013
  8. PS. As to your "fast money" argument, you might want to go back to August of last year and take a look at how the stock "responded" to a 6.3 million share secondary offering at $9.75

    Do you have any idea how many multi-billion dollar fund managers (who don't own a single share of stock) are waiting for this data to come out?

    Ahhhh F-it.
    Forget about it.
    The lack of DD here is mind-boggling.
     
    #98     Apr 14, 2013
  9. Do yourself a favor and spend 20-30 minutes listening to the last quarterly conference call from Feb. 20th.
    You can find the audio portion link here:

    http://investor.exactsciences.com/events.cfm
     
    #99     Apr 14, 2013
  10. jj90

    jj90

    Good call on the collar, was looking at exactly that with those strikes.


    Some of us peons are interested in what your points are, drop the holier than thou attitude next post around. We would just like to know the thesis.
     
    #100     Apr 14, 2013