Examples of statistical edges in sports betting?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by BillySimas, Feb 16, 2012.

  1. Final result was 7/7 on the horse picks using the system I am working on. I tried something different last night and also bet on 2 horses to both win and show. I lost on one win bet and won the other so it was still slightly better than break-even across those 2 win bets.

    I have started cancelling bets also when the payouts become too low to be worth the risk. Last night for example I had a third horse bet on to win/show, but the payout was only 1/5 right before the race...I didn't deem that worth the risk so I took it off and just doubled my bet size on the "show" bet instead.

    So counting the new attempts I made by adding the win bets to the mix, I was 8/9 last night. I wagered 9% of my account total and returned 32% on those wagers, so 2.8% growth on the total balance for the night.

    If I can just manage 2% a night 250 days a year...I guess I would take that lmao
     
    #71     Aug 25, 2015
  2. Last night was not nearly as good and it made it worse that I increased the bet size to closer to 2%. Because of scratches on my original picks my total # of bets was a bit lower. I bet on 5 races and only hit on 2. Luckily those 2 both paid out decently well. I lost 25% of my total wagered following the method I am working on. I placed a couple additional bets not following the system, but they didn't work out as planned either. I've been noticing some races seem to be kind of weird classes or odd requirements to qualify, so I am going to try and thin out my race selection a bit more to keep it with horses I feel might be a bit more consistent.

    Anyways, still learning from it and hoping to make some progress. It is fun regardless.
     
    #72     Aug 26, 2015