Aww, no pictures this time? And again, you have major reading comprehension issues. where did i ever claim to be handicapping horses? the OP asked for statistical edges. so here you are throwing out a few buzz words so that we might believe youre not a complete moron, but you still havent offered anything positive to the thread. now i'm curious, is this how you trade stocks? you pour over the balance sheets and annual reports to make a decision? last i looked this was elite trader, so by the time u do all your awesome research i've already been in out probably twice and am home counting my money while your thumb is still up your ass! why is enron going down? the balance sheet looks so strong?? Like I said earlier, typical loser. oh and i couldnt care less if u think i had the winner, but if u want to go ahead and do some of your awesome research just look at the example i gave. look familiar? Now again, run along and go back to the kiddie pool...I'm done feeding the trolls.
hilojack belched, "Horse-racing: bet the overlay. find the horses that are like 2nd-4th favorite in morning lines odds that are going off higher. So look for an 8-1 going off at 12-1, etc. The logic is that no one is betting those horses and most people are losers. Bet 1/1A when you can. Basically you get 2 horses for the price of one, and the new horse will be a wildcard. If he's FTL he could respond favorably." Now, you're saying if you do these things you will make money? Do you have proof, or are you just talking out of what the ancients used to call your sphinxter? If you have no proof, or even a single backtest then what we have here is someone that is simply posting fraudulent information and asking to be respected for it. Fraud is not a good thing.
Easy guys, no need for that. On the bright side, you were able to share your thoughts, you just disagreed to each other.
Your on the right idea. Back in 2004 I worked booking horse races, and we had a handful of wiseguys who would use stats software to find horses that were paying too much, these were players who had tight bet limits around the books because everyone in the business knew they were they kind of guy that would win too big too often I figure they used some sort sabermetrics
I used to bet on European football (soccer) just for fun. Developed a quantitative system that worked on national leagues only but no international matches (hence cannot bet on the World Cup). Fixed odds payoff is just a digital option with short maturity. My style of play is similar to option realized/implied vol play. I compared historical to implied probabilities in order to look for opportunities. Though EV was positive, I did not like the variance. Unlike options, you cannot reduce the PnL variance by hedge away the "market risk". So this project was just a fun project, couldn't make a living out of it. But it was fun and the lessons were directly applicable to trading Tried my system on tennis but it did not work well
I know enough about tennis (I can identify about 80% of the top 100) that I think I could probably come up with 1 or 2 high quality bets per month. I get the sense that a lot of betters don't know the lower ranked players, and hence there are occasionally real anomalies in the betting. I've read that's even more true in the women's matches. For instance Dancevic beat the favorite Karlovic in 1st round of Wimbledon, even though I'd say Dancevic was probably a favorite in that match. Of course it's easy to call matches the day after. For today's matches I'm calling Stakhovsky over Gulbis, the 12th seed. Stakhovsky is shrewd and Gulbis is a notoriously erratic player with a forehand that's too slow for grass.