The lines for a game do move similar to a stock price, people speculate on the direction that the line is going to move, and they make bets to take advantage of such moves. Lets say the Cowboys are playing the Redskins, and on tuesday morning when the lines open for the sunday's football games, the line opens at Cowboys -6... A wiseguy calls the book and bets 5 dimes on the cowboys at -6, so the line mover now has more money on the cowboys than he does on the skins... so he goes to -6 laying 115... let's say that people keep putting money on the cowboys throughout the week, after the lay 15, they go to lay 120, then to -6 1/2, and so on... lets say by sunday the line moved to cowboys -8 1/2 the same wiseguy calls and puts another 5 dimes on the skins at +8 1/2 The game starts... if the cowboys win by 10, he loses $500... in the cowboys win by less than 6 or even lose, he losses $500... but if they win by 7... he makes $10,000. (it's a madeup example and I haven't seen a football game in 10 years, and its been even longer since I moved a line at a book... but you get the general idea) Wiseguys usually do this on the football, on pros but specially on college (nebraska with its freaking 54 point spreads can move a LOT ) since the lines stay open much longer than basketball games (which usually come up a couple of days before the game, since they play so often). you can't middle the hockey since the lines don't move enough and they usually move on the money not the spread... in order to do something like this, you need to get a Don Best screen, and pay for the realtime updates... so that you can see the line from all the books and hit the line when a mover needs to get hit on one side for the game... You can't just try to play middles with a single book, just like you can't seriously trade on free yahoo data...
The good stuff is typically in the prop and exotic bets. You can get a strong edge when you find something but it doesn't scale past betting $500 at the few venues that have the lines you want. That's why the pro sports gamblers I know aren't retired already, nor can they take any outside money.
Fun thread. I did a stint as a "professional gambler" right after 9/11. I took some time off when the markets were crap and moved to the carribean. While there, I met a "reformed" bookie thanks to the NJ correctional system and he showed me a ton of little things that were money makers. Here's a few: Horse-racing: bet the overlay. find the horses that are like 2nd-4th favorite in morning lines odds that are going off higher. So look for an 8-1 going off at 12-1, etc. The logic is that no one is betting those horses and most people are losers. Bet 1/1A when you can. Basically you get 2 horses for the price of one, and the new horse will be a wildcard. If he's FTL he could respond favorably. Baseball: Bet the run line. Parlay if you can. we used to take 4-5 game parlays betting the run line with the logic being that if a team was going to win it would likely win by more than 1 run. If you can find good pitchers on bad teams the odds will usually be in your favor. We used to bet 10 bucks a night and would hit once a week for $300-$500 bucks. Football: Look for middles. Need multiple bookies/accounts for this one. for example, if you can find variance in spread take the favorite laying 13.5 pts., and the dog getting 14.5 pts. basically a hedged bet- max loss is vig on one side, and if the bookies do their job right, the favorite wins by 14 and you win both sides. Can also do middles with parlays on the over under: o/u= 40. use the 6 points to take under 46, over 34. combo it with the underdog and add 8 points if you like team. Basketball: Bet second half over under: I forget the amount of points but a typical game averages x points per minute. If under the amount going into halftime take the over, if over take the under. I'll have to see if i can find out what the X is. Soccer: in non-tournament action, bet for a tie game. Or "empate" in espanol. I became a soccer guru, because of my winning % and all I would do is bet the tie! These guys were all emotionally invested somehow, and I didn't know a thing about these teams. Who do you like? Tigres or Cruz Azul? Empate! LOL Other fun activites to bet on-- pool, dominoes, dice, etc. Oh if I could go back in time...
Can't say anything about the sports betting (i have no interest) but your racing advice pretty much blows. Racing has a high takeout, and nothing short of high expertise will be profitable. Poker is a game where even congenital idiots make money.
I agree ... very tough to beat the vig in racing but congenital idiots (and even some bright people) donate money at the poker table. It is a game that can be beat and I have know a couple of guys that make their living playing it but it is by no means easy to win consistently. About 10 years ago I checked into a modest hotel in Atlantic City (the Irish Pub for those who know the town) for a summer --10 weeks -- and barely covered modest expenses. It's demanding game that leaves little room for error. I'm told by a very reliable source that the massive tourist traffic in Vegas makes for an easier time than AC which has a somewhat higher ratio of full time and nearly full time players.
Betting the favorite to show can often yield decent returns since the favorite will often pay the same to show and to place. Bettors generally don't go to the track to bet on sure things, hence the anomaly. On the other hand longshots are generally overbet.
There are definitely professional sports handicappers. Moreseo in Europe than in the US - it's easier to get a big bet down with a reputable firm on the other side of the Atlantic. It doesn't actually take killer stats to deal with some sports. Pro football and basketball can be tackled with just offensive and defensive power rankings computed using a least-squares methodology plus a home field advantage adjustment and a basic understanding of the role of injuries and weather in each game. Obviously you need 4-6 weeks of data before that starts to work though.
Typical loser...my advice blows because....wait for it...only high expertise can be profitable! Let me guess, people shouldnt trade the markets because only high expertise will be profitable! obviously there is more to it than i suggested but i actually made a living doing this, as opposed to sitting in my moms basement criticizing but offering nothing. howd california chrome work out for u in the belmont....tonalist bought me a steak dinner!