Thanks for the map RFT, I will check it out after the trading day. My poor CHF trade is making some progress. Looks like it is up about 35 ticks or so.
MACRO-VIEW USDCHF Here's what I see on a macro view with the Swissy.... First, I know Jim Rogers is buying it, let's get that BS out of the way.... Once value is built at parity or 1.0000 (we are there now), a key directional move will develop and I suspect it will be worth 1500 ticks. My analysis has an above average chance that we will move up to 1.1500 and test this value area once more. If 1.1500 is not overcome then we will leg on down to 8500 and likely 6500. If 1.15 is overcome, then we will leg up 1.3500. So let's watch this level carefully and be prepared for the directional move and do our best to identify it as early as possible. Obviously this is not tradeable for most, but it is important to understand long term market structure and tune out all the BS media crap you hear all the time. Including Jimmy and his Chinese family. So I am long out of 9920, respecting the unbelieveable hunger for this pair, but watching for signs of change.
So.....what make currencies move. I mean move directionally. Not shoot up or down for a session as whacked out folks hit buttons. No answers so far except for the kind invitation from riskfreetrading to join him and atticus. Maybe nobody knows That explains why currencies move now doesn't it.
I like to see responses to thread titles like this one..... "Exactly How I Made One Million Dollars Per Year Trading Currencies" It brings out the best in folks, including the ET mounted police. Reminds me of the story of the man who was giving away money on the street. Folks thought he was crazy and ran from him. He could not give away his money. That's how we humans think. No wonder we can't make money. A million bucks a year. Not what it used to be. Okay, lets see... let's say you could get to the point where you could trade 20 contracts of something. Let's pick the CHF. $1,000,000 / 50 Weeks = 20,000 a week (take two weeks off, you deserve it) $20,000 week / $10 avg tick = 2000 ticks per week 2000 ticks / 20 contracts = 100 ticks a week So if you can leverage 20 contracts of something, and make a 100 points NET per week.... you are a millionaire. Heck, that sounds easy. Order your Porshe now.
Let's just pretend. ATTN: ET MOUNTED POLICE, just pretending here. Like in elementary school. Please don't give your opinion on journals and where threads should be. Others are free to post their trades here if so inclinded. Fire away. I am going to try my best to make a million dollars in this thread. I am not sure if I have the stamina to post 5000 times a day, but I will do my best to keep up. Please do not yell and slander me. It is just for fun. So our first trade started today, at the end of March. I am behind already and taxes are due soon. Where's my medicine. I am going to trade 20 contracts. (Remember ET police, it is just pretend, for amusement. I am a loser I admit it, no need to spend time here re-inforcing it) Long 20 USDCHF @ 9920.
I like to keep things as simple as possible. I am not a highly educated man or economist obviously who can figure out purchasing power parity and such. On a simple level across all time frames, it is easy to see that currencies 1. Move directionally or trend 2. Consolidate or build value until the new value is accepted or not accepted 3. then, Move diretionally or trend The cycle is simple to see when reading from right to left on a chart. It is easy for umteen websites to report what is happening with fancy circles and commentary. BUT HOW DO YOU IDENTIFY WHICH CYCLE YOU ARE IN AND HOW TO TRADE IT? In reality, I don't think it is possible to attack the market that way? Just look at the swissy now. We have had these big swings on an hourly chart and now for 3 or 4 days we are building value or consolidating. Did we really know this was going to happen and implement range trading plans? It is certainly easy to see now that we can read from right to left. But were we smart enough to either stand aside or range trade. I admit I wasn't? If only we could tell what was going to happen.
On another note.... Did any of us think that currency movements would become so inter-dependent on the success or failure of the US Equity Markets? I feel like I am trading Equity Indexes sometimes. Not only in the US, but more importantly in EUR/ASIA. Talk about being a flexible businessman, being long USDCHF means praying that the S&P Index doesn't fall apart on an hour by hour basis. As if I didn't have enough to worry about.