Trading can't be an exact science. The targets and stops are variable and non-repeatable. At best, it is an approximate science.
=============== Good practical points. Math is an exact science.Trading is not.Mean, mode, median can be exactly figured; but they are averages . High %% are not exact predictions, but helpful; amazing high %% of new traders, trade too big a percentage of account.
if it is,and it could be extemely close to one ,now or someday,,and someone knew it,they would skew the market repeatedly to prevent discovery,if discovered and widely known,the profitts would disappear
Trading is not an exact science. I'll prove my point. Elitetrader competition time. (Oh yeh!) Hahaha, where are all the gobshites when u need 'em? "...Oh, i don't trade that way!..." Never-the-less, certain traders will always come to the top. I guess some 'traders' just like the sound of their own voices.
Trading is only a science after you have a large number of trades to put through analysis. At the end of the analysis, you will have a quantifiable set of numbers that states your success/failure. However, like any statistical analysis, a single trade or small sub-group of trades can have a huge swing in probabilities and may not reflect the true mean average The funny this is that I was discussing this with the traders in the office and we at first said this only applied to traders with a consistent strategy they did not deviate from. However, we realized that even a trader who was "shooting from the hip" would actually end up doing alot of the same things over and over again and end up with a quantifiable set up numbers that showed the true success/failure of the "system"