Jack,you said that you trade a middle fractal.My approximation is that it takes about 18k to 23k of the volume to start trading the middle channel.Am i correct?Do you update the volume/volatility matrix every day or every weak?( i found the Spyder`s V/V matrix yesterday on TL, and thought it could be very useful)Something, that i have problem with so far.. Please, suggest where to dig. tnx
No, it isn`t. I don't think trading strategies are as vulnerable to not working if people know about them, as most traders believe. If what you are doing is right, it will work even if people have a general idea about it. I always say you could publish rules in a newspaper and no one would follow them. The key is consistency and discipline. Richard Dennis p.s.Besides, my Antikythera Device proves Jack is right
http://wn.com/Paul_wolfowitz_has_a_hole_in_his_socks_! I have a friend of mine with the same socks and pants issues.He rarely has less than 5k in his pocket as a pin money
Volume is an important issue and understanding market PACE comes from the distribution of volume for a given time frame. there is a nice direct corrolation of volume and time frames. Selecting a time frame comes first in setting up a market display. For ES my starting point is the commonly used time frame of 5 minutes. Doing the volume PACE distribution follows. I use deciles for examining the 10 grooups of equal volume distributions. I combined the 10 portiions into six groups where the extremes are 1 portion each and the central groups are two portions each. I use Pace in a matrix that deals with tow price chracterisitics where one (volatility) is commonly used in CW measurements. The other is uncommon but very informative (overlap). To empower each of these matrices I do an add delete every 5 minutes and the sample set of bars approximates 2 months of bars (1600). The lowest range is VDU the hoighest reange is Extraordinary. The four incresing ranges are DU, Low, Medium amd High. The coded snippet used is a rainbow of colors to demark the ranges. It is the background of the volume pane. Three things appear on the volume pane: volume bars; the PACE in the background; and three levels of interlocking fractal annotations of the four peaks and troughs comprising the pattern as volume relates to the price pattern B2B 2R 2B for long or R2R 2B 2R for short. The price and volume coordinated order of events on all three interlocking fractals takes all risk and money management aspects out of trading since time is now replaced by events which follow a certain and invariant order. In Behavioral Finance, it has been determined that people relate two two types of events: Continuation and Change. Not that it matters but this foundation for parametric measure was set forth long before TA became significant and just after DOW theory was extablished. Elsewhere I have posted the beginnings of all of this (1690) until 1957 on three flow sheets. I began in 1957 with the current paradigm and it will remain unchanged for all market theory from here on out. The HS of the paradigm was built as an identity to what turned out latter to be the event basis of Behavioral Finance. The BF web site wraps up quite nicely and thoroughly how human behavior relates to these two event classes. for me it was refreshing to see BF also adopt the identical event classes. BF deals with people and I deal with the markets in a way that is now known as TA. The mathematics of TA is finite mathematics and the two event classes narrow the finite math to binary VECTOR analysis because of the general class the events form. I describe in a language term this class: gerunds. Using the two variables of markets in a gerund form to establish the HS of the paradigm meets the required conditions for paradigm theory (Keynes). So my parametric measures turn out to be gerunds applied to the variables of the market. Through deduction using science in the context that markets have granularity (caused by the unit of exchange in a market) finite math proves that only one pattern exists as a market cycle component. Cycles have two compoents (long and short) and these COMPLETE in a serial manner. Roughly speaking, none of this is realized or known to the financial industry just as a mere consequence of the fact that the industry is based on sales and marketing rather than science. Sales and marketing has a mathematics largely devoted to probabilityand statisitics which, in turn, measure competitive performance ( A way to acquire clients). So Volume became, for me, the leading ingredient of what is extracted to make money in markets: price change. As a footnote, it turns out that in a market there are only 10 cases of the adjacent bars of a given timeframe. Using a timeframe is not the basis of making money but it is conventional for a lot of people who practice TA. The 2 money making cases determine the market sentiment and once the sentiment is discerned then dominance and non dominance of trends (price change segments) is established. So, the wrap around is that a person extracts all of the offer continually by price segments which follow the orderr of events of markets. It follows that a person would measure the order of events and from that extract each segment as it forms and completes. Binary vector monitoirng and analysis is how this is done. By trading the middle fractal of three interlocking fractals, it is never possible to not know what is going on. Always the three questions are answerable: 1. Where are you? 2. what is next? 3. how fast are things changing? As any person goes through figuring out how wealth works and just how much is available by letting money work as a commoditiy, it is easily discovered that there is no pecking order of society that has to be conformed to. Having a job is not part of conducting a life style in this realized setting. Before I knew this I went to college and grad school as a natural undertaking. I knew what I needed to know about wealth when I left college, so all I did was extablish my intial capital and then invest TIME to attain freedom and then make use of that freedom the rest of my life. My colleagues, some of who are described here, also get to enjoy this freedom. As part of NY society I genrally conformed to the societal whims. I was also free to enjoy an international life style. Acdemics and what became known as the Environment have held my interests most of my life. Entwined in this is problem solving and I spent my life doing this and everyone is now affected by those results. whether they know it or not. The detractors and apparent "have nots" are not able to prove anything to the contrary since the proofs are not possible. The most common non proof done by the less astute is to go through the motions of tying to prove a negative. Logic doesn't permit this. I like that the detractors do what they do. People can actually believe them just as they believe the myths of the markets. this is a huge filter. Imagine if a site like ET had some capability. Then, we could connect in obviously better ways that would cut through the "unbelivable". On the other hand maybe is it good that detractors maintain their "unbelievability" levels of undevelopment mentally. In closing, Spydertrader, is the person on point for the PhD's, etc., He has gone the extra miles to accurately and clearly pass forward the model, its develpments and applications. It is probably not possible for the public to realize the extent of his contributions to help all those he has helped to be successful. The myth of the detractors that no one has found utility and success with the approach is easily belied by just looking at Spyder's efforts and thede successes in helping others. (at a rate of 2 million hits a year.) So make good use of Spyder's contributiions wherever they appear. There are many expert traders in the markets and Spyder is definitely one of them. His journals are a set of valuable contributions to ET; you can be assured of that since they did not make the "Best 100 List" as a direct consequence of the lack of judgmental prowess of the list builders. LOL....
3,14 was evaluated 4k or even 17k years ago by the ancients. The Great Pyramid is the evidence.Only many many years later it was realised by modern mathematicians.
Jack, you in power to create your own environment for ''creators''.I think many decent people would join it.You can even start a simple free blog for the ''believers'' if you would like to.You`ve accumulated enough knowledge to share with those who care.Why spread yourself in vain.. You won`t explain to the detractors that the first airport on the planet was 17k years ago in the Nazca Desert.
I came across his thread on TL two days ago.He then introduced the basics of your method.Good thread.Basicly,it could be derived from the first several pages and next there were only specification and argue(as usual). There could still be nuances,though,particularly,when he mentioned 'subtleties '.It would be interesting to ask him what did he mean by the 'subtleties'.Seems no one wanted to ask him about it.Therefore the 'subtleties' still remain undiscovered
From what I have observed the Spydertrader Stitch indicator in TN only identifies a stitch when the volume of the second bar is less than the volume on the first bar (non dom on the second bar). It doesn't identify stitches where the second bar is dom, as you have noticed. I'm not sure what the significance of that is, though.