No, trading is not exact science. Exact mean that you could quantify exactly the variables of the market and then make a prediction based on this, and ALWAYS have the same outcome! (meaning that you will always win). On the other hand, for example math is exact science because if someone give you a math problem, and also give you the algorithm to solve that problem, you will always get the same outcome. Period.
better listen what he says.if trading is not exact for you so far, make it happen the exact.jh the only man to save you from oblivion.
Even if I would run an 100% systematic approach, the outcome will be different, because market behave differently. Thanks but don't worry I don't need jack hershey to save me from oblivion. Because I don't have problems like this and the approach which I'm using now is good for me.
Ok, no problem then.But you should be a very lucky guy, if you do not consider your own approach as an exact.
Your comments probably reflect your belief system. The several beliefs and their integration to get a conclusion is typical of most people who examine markets. Quantifying the variables exactly is very possible. There are many ways to do this and one subset is correct and the other is incorrect or just partially correct. We both recognize your outcome by the way it related to your conclusion. My outcome turned out to be the opposite of yours. Others share riether beiing in one of the other subset as expected. One interesting switch that was made in ET happened with a respected person in this community. (Acrurary) I do not know of any examples of people going grom the subest I use to the subset you use. The second element of your beliefs is the "prediction" orientation you have. We are fifferent because you operate in the future and I only am limited to the Present for trading and thinking. This is anyone's choice. We chose opposites at some point. I chose in 1957 when I began trading. What I chose was that prediction is not necessary; it has no bearing on The Present where I trade exclusively. To trade well, there is a reliability requirement. Attaining complete no conditional reliability was one of my requirements. This makes it possible to always have any trade under control all of the time. There are three outcomes possible for any position in any market at any given time. Two of them precipitate non wins called losses. I recommend that "wash" trades be taken and a "wash" trade incurs the premium as a cost of ding business like every other business. Using only winning trades is the result This occurs by being in the market all the time at 5 or less times the market capacity. The segway to the proof of this kind of operation comes from your second paragraph. You are precisely correct that the markets are a problem. Because the markets are a problem, it is necessary, as you have determeined,to use a mathematics that is in total correspondence to the markets. So for me, I give away the "algorithm" by a singular example, which dictates the specific mathematics required to solve the problem. Finite mathematics has total utility because the market's paradigm has a hypothesis set that is "like kind" (See Keynes) and, therefore, logic theory, used exclusively, deductivel eliminates all noise and anomalies. The foundation of this utility of applicatiion is the total coupling of "like kind" and the small number of corresponding cases (10). Anyone can retrace their steps that created their beliefs. No forward path takes anyone to the chidingly characterized "oblivion". There is much much inductive evidence that the CW will not change. CW does migrate, however. A cool test is doing two searches: search ET for PA or Price Action and search Goolge ofr the same. You can make two lists of the order of events of persons falling in line for PA. The critical moments for me in modelling and developing trading were neat. "Serendipity strikes again" best characterizes the milestones and mini milestones. The highway of CW is mostly based on Hope and the desire for "easy money" all up and down the sprectrum. as has been often noted Behavioral Science and Behavior Finance verifies this. the sweetest facet of the most general rendition of BS and BF is that the two treminology streams about which predications are made ARE the key words of the HS I chose. You didn't dvelop an association with either term. Continuation, Change. NOT opposites but orthogonal.
jack hershey, No offense, but what you are saying is... non sense. outsource, I didn't said that my approach is exact or not, it doesn't matter, I just wanted to say that the outcome will be different because market have too many variables which can't be quantified, for example, you can't quantify the emotional behavior of all market participants, not even for one person. So, variables are always changing, this mean that the outcome will always be different. Now, let's take the math example again, if you solve 1+1 always 2. Or a more complex problem, it's always going to give the same outcome. And no, I'm not relying my trading on luck. Hope that I was clear now. If not, sorry but I don't want to continue this discussion.
Hi Jack, Can you elaborate on "5 times the market capacity"? I think this applies on both equities and futures, right? Thanks!
Yes it applies to all instruments in all markets, given sufficient liquidity. 3 Beta stocks ar a typical example. In no Beta terms you look at the next tier of ownership to assure you keep a high beta for money makng puposes. W. J O.Neill covered a lot of these bases in CANSLIM in HTMMIS. For ES, if you look at low volume periods, you usually see laterals (blue boxes on TN, for example). Gander at the BO's of these laterals into the next Lateral. This is going from A to C and then to G on cycle 1 flow sheet. Usually you get a DOJI on the extreme of the Lateral and you are either taken out or you reverse on the DOJI. What is the high velocity trader to do about making money. He has to use market PACE to decide how to get partial fills using the even harmonic characteristic at play. Five partials @ the PACE level of blocks on the T&S is what would be used. This block size shows up on the T7S as the largest blocks going through. There is a myth about having to rush so you space partials out 15 to 20 seconds apart at this time. When pace is high, odd harmonics prevail. Then you have to turn to the DOM and the OTR charts. The S/S is the early warning system and first derivatives of the envelope of the S/S bars are used. the setting is that S/S runs 30 seconds ahead of all other indidicators of price including price. So you unload/reload (reverse) going into the spike across the spile and settle ASAP after the spike. Volume is ALWAYS peaking on LTL's, fortunately. This is the END of a dominant profit segment. basicaly by tapping the trade and setting the block size well ahead, you just keep getting fill after fill until the turn is all realized profits and you are now holding @ the 5 times PACE level. I do not trade the troughs on reversals since sentiment remains the same. I usually hold through the trough between points 1 and 2 (a defined "retrace" and not a reversal) UNLESS the market pace is light during midday. there is an exception: non trending days. Here the market walks out of RTL's in laterals. The rule for these laterals on high velocity profit making is to only trade extreme DOJI's in the laterals and to NOT trade DOJI's which are centrally located in any lateral. I made more detailed flow sheets of the cycle 1 flow sheet. There you will see the addition of alpha, beta and gamma volume nodes. Also you will see the DOJI price considerations. These three sheets (11 by 17) are a way to add more definition to the cycle 1, 3 by 5 card word document already posted.