Here is an annotated chart. There are occasional discussions about what is going on. In a Deprsssion it is very important to lnow what is what and how it is unfolding. To that end I recommend a binary vector view of market operation. By using paradigm and logic theory all noise and anomalies disappear. Ir was very important to me to deal with the faultering of the Depression retrace. There, at that time an intermediate trend turned into a familiar formation found on slower fractals: the inverted saucer. It is an estremely food idea for anyone who deals with creating and maintaining wealth to know what is going on an just how to have capital "growing" all of the time. While it is clear T666 does not manage money nor trade, it is a good idea for him to persist in his ways. He provide a significant example to us all about how important it is to not make a mistake in ubnderstanding what is going on.
Anyone using 3 x 5 cards for the nodes of cycle 1 can copy the attachment and use the sections as paste on's to 3 x 5 cards.
Jack, was this because Aug/09 failed to have " more increasing black " before reaching the ve level on the monthly chart ?
Thank you for the scheduling help. Sometimes it nails the ftt and other times it gets me to the trough. Either way, it puts me in a good place, but its not "exact" for me yet.
For me, the time that has a lot of what provides the prsent deja vu is the scneario of '87. The boutique I coordinated with knew for certain the crash was coming so the effort to go to cash had to be completed. Here we have the multi year Depression scanrio. So what applied to '87 was a 4 to 10 day P, V test. In a Depression things are measured in years. On Sunday Berneche got it half right on unemployment stretching our 5 to 6 years; it will actually be 10 to 12 years. Let take a look at the recently annotated chart's volume leading into the climax run of the Bull market. There you see the THREE spikes of volume that betrayed what you noted: "failure to have more increasing black" WHAT WAS THERE INSTEAD OF EVEN BLACK WERE "DOMINANT" SPIKES THAT WERE RED. All of this was in 2006, however. The die was cast the Bull ended and the Depression began to knock off the pattern points. I parsed the chunks of going to point 1 and going to point 3 and drew pink lines to show the "order of chunks" as a series of segments that are WMCN chunked for each series. What contrasts the two series is that one is dominant and this one is non dominant. Even in a non dominant there is an ftt which ends the sub pattarn on hisher volume. You can see the month with that volume. So this post peak volume can only continue a trend in a state of fannning (as internals precipitate). Depressions, last for many years and this is the fifth year of this one, econometrically speaking. this is not an intermediater term formation context. As the LTL of the Bull retrace was quenched and snuffed out of the picture. The Depression "HOPE" formation replaced it. Simply fanning the Bull retrace is not sufficient in terms of applying logic by critical thinking. Understanding what is dominant in a Depression is a requirement. We all are told that and red volume is what is telling us what is dominant. you can see on the annotated chart the Bull retrace of the Depression was a non dominant sentiment in this Depression. Now we have proceeded for 21 months (counting from point 2) to get a tangent to the inverted saucer so the Depression RTL is "locked in". Red dominant volume is what moves the inverted saucer forward. Breaking out of the inverted saucer downward will happen as no overlap of formations ensues. we will simply be commencing the first moves of the last MAJOR move of this Depression. As said, on Sunday we learned unemployment will persist. What will be the TA imprimatur of bad news on unemployment? You can also add in the other 5 main causes of negative aspects of direct, indirect and induced aspects. These will be VE's which will be the cause of "accelerating" the RTL of this Depression." I plan on dealing with three VE's during the first 2/3 of the last leg of the Depression. How does a VE get in place? Peaking red volume. Probably, more people cannot be expected to deal with long term econometric patterns. They had only experienced one (long) in their lives. That's life. It probably will get across to people what peakinf red volume means after three successive lessons. 1. The cause of the climax run on the prior Bull market. 2. The performance of red vulume peaks in the inverted saucer sequence to get point 3 of the depression. AND 3. The VE's of the accelerating Depression during its remaining 10 to 12 years. "Failure of increasing Black volume" is off the table for many many years to come.
Jack, I agree with your analysis of the current depression. As a European I've shifted my assets out of EUR and into USD. The EMU lacks an adequate policy to adress the issues that are brought up by the depression and the policy that is in place works pro-cyclical by enforcing austerity measures onto government budgets and liquidity crunches in the banking system. I expect things to be much worse over here and I see the EMU breaking up within the next few years (lead by France reintroducing the franc). How do you see this depression developing on a global scale? Would you say that there are exact methods of tying in market developments with broader social trends? Lastly, do you have any solution for the depression, be it monetary solutions or solution for helping out locally?
Wars so far have always been the solution for all the depressions.Should it be diff this time,we`ll see...
These are the major econometric Q's which will be answered before by planners and after by historians. Globally, it is a function of interdependence. All social sectors have their tipping points and they are arranged as dominos. The arrangement of foxes in chicken coops is universal at this point. They create a pile of feathers and go elsewhere. The underpinnings of our orientation is having "immunity". We noticed this immunity as a characteriitc of pool extraction. We feel lpools will operate intermittently when the bottom stages are moving laterally. Collapsing pools will occur during the latter VE's of the, now immenent, third move of the global Depression. An example. We have determined here that we could pick up 15 or so mortages daily per trader (think 50 contracts @ multiple of ATR) as the beginning of our app of cap. Aggregating these is a bank replacement chartering enterprise. We will not displace people but just do deals. We are finishing the documentation on out PTSD model (Book in mid FEB. Capitalization in MARCH and extracting Gov money after that. Initial VA training pass was completed this year. NIH presentation in NOV. There is a 40 year backlog of technology iterative refinement available. Capitalizing it with talent and money is the drift of applying the major pool extraction effort. Teenagers have captured the information innovation and that is not important. What is important is water, food, health and renewable spread out energy sourses and local applications. All this was by passed in modern times. More later I have to get to trading office.
Trading is not an exact science. It does involve way too many variables and discretion. Briefly speaking, ask 10 traders how would they define a trend and see the results. But, maybe I'm wrong and I'm open to new ideas.
Your expression is priceless. Reading it backwards will be a treat for anyone who goes through the motions. Attached is a statement based on an exact science of markets. Go 61 trading days out on a calendar mark the date and reread this post and the attached Excel. Notice at that time that the trades on the Excel pappened and so did a lot more. The Excel is based upon two market variables. I know that you know there are many many more. Make a personal list of all these variables and guess which ones we are using to do these 60 days of trading in the ES. Read gabfly's assessment of how lousy the ES is. From his "value thread (MAY2010 and 11 pages long) make up the "big time" Excel that he expects the yield to be. Trends in markets are absolutely clear to expert traders. The Excel is a beginner Excel.