Oh please... the "sophomoric play on words" is YOURS. You said you don't predict, then I gave examples of you predicting. Then you claimed it's anticipation instead of prediction. Then when I showed you using the word "predict" in talking about your predictions, you tried to obfuscate by accusing me of playing word games. Give me a break. Just like you're trying to obfuscate your failed turning point of a lifetime with an "inverted saucer" and other drivel. Your exact words were: As a trader for 53 years, this turning point tomorrow is the most significant I have seen in my life. You used the word "tomorrow" and it still hasn't happened, over a year later. Also note how insignificant that day turned out to be, and the far more significant turning points you didn't predict. So please spare us your "exact science" nonsense.
Too bad your frame of reference failed you here. So much for trading being an exact science. <img src=http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2592993>
T6, perhaps you misread JH's prediction for a turning point! (given by our master of sales and funrunning) http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2903369#post2903369 First, a turn beginning tomorrow would take some time, how long we don't know yet, but it will turn one day. Second, the market always turns (at any point of time), either up or down relatively, until it will be proved (the last prediction was) correct. Third, his prediction this time didn't say turning up or down yet. Luckily and/or (un)knowingly/ purposely.
Hi, I'm new here. I came to learn. I didn't come to have my time wasted by a bunch of over testosteroned morons engaged in a pissing contest. If you don't like what someone proposes, then propose a positive and constructive alternative. Otherwise, shut the fuck up and find something more useful to do with your obvious overload of time, and quit wasting mine. If you are making a fortune doing something else, I would love to hear about it. Otherwise, paragraph above. I understand that JH is controversial. I also realize that he is verbose and obtuse. That doesn't mean that what he is able to do, and what he has learned over the last 50 years, is without merit. "Those who can do. Those who can't teach. Those who can't teach administrate." A great doer is not necessarily a great teacher. So far I have learned more from his students' writings than I have from many of his. What amazes me, and in turn gives credibility to his theses (feces, apparently, to some of you), is that you naysayers would spend SO much of your time trying to bring him down. If there wasn't something to what he says, why would you waste hours castigating, disparaging and discrediting him? Is it simply because you aren't smart or patient enough to understand what he says? Is it because you are unsuccessful and poor, and he is successful and rich? Or are you just leading a boring and useless life with nothing to do but bitch about others? I don't know the answer; I'm questioning. Or perhaps I'm postulating (look it up). But I DO know it's NOT because you are successful and rich; you would have much better things to do with your time. Whatever the reason, you are a LOSER. Oh, and by the way, I'm not oblivious to the fact that JH fans the flames by responding to your useless time wasting posts. Stop it! All of you! Go post your shit on a whiner's blog, not this one where people are trying to learn. As far as I can tell, this website is little more than a time waster to those of us who have real goals and aspirations, who are eager to learn, and who are extremely grateful to those who might take the time to share information that might prove useful. If the rest of you fuck off, it might eventually meet that goal.
Bible in Basic English: Luke 6:40 "The disciple is not greater than his master, but everyone whose learning is complete will be like his master."
Doing annotating is not difficult but it is defined by exacting rules for P and V in combination. Attached is a chart that adds a spot for volume and I recommend using one of the S7P indexes that displays both P and V. By using bar charts you also get to see the volatility and overlap which is missing here. In the long term it is important to know about the role of harmonics. That is noted. There is a difference between hindsight and making calls. One preceeds the other as we have seen over the years. Here I am lucky and T666 is unlucky. How could it be any other way? Doing point 3 of this Depression has been a task as difficult as understanding how slowly time passes in a Depression. Trading happens 25 to 40 times intraday and the depression context may seem quite remote from the 2 or three 5 minute bars of normal profit segments. What is true however is the fact that MADA is used no matter which of the integrated fractals one operates on. Peaks and troughs are built from the least observable as are the points of the pattern. Fractals are interlocking just as if they were lego building block constructions. Time is not an independnet variable in markets. The pattern is the independent variable as shown by its order of events. Three price moves are structured in relation to four volume moves. Do the work of looking at how the geometry of container limits can help you "know that you know" where you and the markets are. Geometry projects the boundaries into the future. Trends are either "contained" or their boundiares must be iteratively refined to deal with the symmetry of the future to the past. (See a philosphy of history.) As you see the RTL of the point 1 to point 2 accelerated. The range of these RTL's spread ahead into the future. Since the RTL defines the "end of trend overlap", once the BO occurs, all volume is devoted to the ebb and flow of the ensuing trend. Going from point 2 to point 3 was such a time. Before BO a mixture of players existed with respect to sentiment. Some were winding down and others were becoming established. front running these participants 25 to 40 times a day always has some context to regard. Take the time to get a good P, V chart of the period from early 2006 to the present and do the observable annotations on the chart. Then keep it up to date. At this point, you will notice what it is like on an inverted saucer when the RTL shifts from one sentiment to another. There are many traditional formations which have names. Learning how one formation blends into its successor is worth learning for long term P, V charts.
The indicator (dashed line)that averages all the information in the particular trading session.I named it 'Biographer'.Will it prove its name, we`ll see at the bell ring
I annotated you chart toshow the saucer as an intermediate term formation as part of gpoing from point 2 to point 3. Considering Depressions is not within the experience of most people. As usual their are several fractal levels involved. The complexity of economics and econometrics adds to the circumstance. This week it is being determined how severe the indirect and induced effects will be by cutting the unemployed loose from the support of the government. We also see the shift from fed to state many new responsibilites for states. All of this is on top of the failure to deal with the financial industry crisis that began in mid 2006. It is in many ways a perfect storm. Volume is the MAJOR 'TELL" as you see. Here is the scenario for the next several years. Direct economic improvements will not be possible. Too bad. It would have been helpful to address the direct problems of this Depression. The indirect effects are mostly off the table still. Mark to market ceased quite a while back and it is not possible to deal with either the "artificial instuments, their tranches or their "insurance". Too bad. Induced effects are spreadding throughout. What is noticable is the nice productivity increases which stretch out the durriation of this period of suspention (the caucering of going form point 2 to point 3. It is natural for employed people to work harder. There is no substitution effect in Depressions. The current 2nd generation of "greening" is meagre compared to the first generation where green got put on the table. War has been helping at a fine high level of contribution. Keeping the War(s) going is working out quite well except for the huge portions lost to graft and corruption, neither of which are good multipliers. I guess what happened was technological inovation in the financial industry has far outpaced the ability of regulators to step in and repace the vanished integrity that was a foundation a century ago. Teenagers (Fanning, Johansen and Frankel and throw in Cohen too) took over information economics in the last decade so information is free and taxing it will not work after all. So the saucer makes ending the Bear retrace more murky for most to handle. The black volume will wind down more and more are the fanning of the RTL of this move is finally settled. The puts in point 3 of the Depression within the Bear Retrace. Coming out od the Bear retrace and having the last move of the Depression begin as a Dominant move is what is NEXT. Increasing red volume will begin this dominant short move. What happens to all the invested captal in long term arrangements of those who run the financial industry as a sales and marketing effort? This type of business folds and more and more managers will cook the books and fail to mark to market. Clients who are served one way of another by the financial industry get screwed as usual. Wealth will evaporate all over the place. As we all noticed during the first Depression move from point 1 to point 2 the LTL was broken and a VE allowed the new channel to be drawn. Two short term moves ansued and the end of the move occurred in March of that year. this does set a S level (Support) which is a horizontal in the financial industry. I do not believe there will only be one VE in the third move of this Depresion. My reasoning is that most moves from point 3 to FTT's have VE's more than once. To back that up, I would like to not what happens after VE's usually. Usually there is some fanning of the trends caused by prolonged lateral movements which end in further Dominant moves to get to the END of the pattern (in this case the Depression fractal FTT).. (Note: the middle of any inverted saucer(intermediate trend) is a lateral move after which the Dom of the market changes.) So many years out from now the Depression ENDS with an FTT in a multiyear last short move of the Depression. A good idea is to use the charts of periodicals to determine all of the econometric tweaks that are going on. Some of the neater ones these days are the "gridlock" of the US Congress. The failure of any commissiion's report to be enacted into timely activities. The huge number of foxes in the various chicken coops. An as much as anything the techilogical game playing of the fox and hounds of terrorism. Four tours of duty are common for some US families in avery town and village of the US. PTSD is rampant within these families. 2011 is the fifth year of this Deprssion vis a vis the leading and lagging econometric effects. I can assure you niether my Congresswoman or my Senators have a clue and the record shows all of them are currently being paid off by short term interests of people who make money on commissions and do not care about the value involved in the trade. (See the current thread on the misunderstanding of dark pools)