Thank you for doing the drawings. Now we can move to discovering how market turns take place. I suggested drawing a bar and along the bar adding the path that the ticks follow to form the bar. Your first figure is a "continuation" of a short trend over three bars. Your second figure is a reversal of the sentiment over three bars. PTV has helped you by detailing out how te flow chart goes from node to node by following the paths between nodes. So much has been accomplished. Some of your illustrations contain time elapses of 4 seconds and others contain enogh time passage to see and understand how there is a relationship between bars and the manner in which that relationship is documented. PRV has been well documented as well. It is being calculated from the begging to the end of any forming bar. because a ratiio is involved and arithematic is involved, then we have to look at the denominator and it's influence on the resulting value of the PRV. One thing becomes apparent: during the first several seconds the PRV "shadow" will be canging remarkably as it drops down from positive infinity. Most of the trip is made in milliseconds but it is a good idea to let in pan out for a number of seconds. I post 12 seconds as a reasonable portion of the 300 seconds involved. In many types of stats 0.05 is used as a gate for significant measurability. 12/300ths sort of fits into this casual realm. When the matrices of volume PACE with repect to volatility, etc., were posted, whole bars were used to show the vertical and horizontal Gaussian distributions. This was a clear measure of the strong corrolatiion of market PACE and market volatility. from this we can gather that PRV is "showing" the forming bar's propensity to be a given number of ticks in length. Further this suggests the importance of "temporary" nature of what is continuing to "freak out" most potential traders. A bar that has a two tick range and is a Doji is a "beginning of a bar." and if it is 4 to 8 seconds "old", let it mature a little as you sit on a given node.
At this point in the intellectual consideration of the potential of trading, most potential traders are facing the "Fear" or "Greed", myth propounded by the superficial CW types. Actually "ignorance" is running the show and it is supported by the Lizard Syndrome which we all know is related to self preservation. "If you do not know what you are doing, don't do it". applies. Cycle 1 addresses the ETERNAL QUESTION of how exits are done. Cycle 1 deals with two manditory exits. Before these the potential learning trader is safely in the market holding or WAITING on the sidelines where exiting does not apply. If a dominant trend is no longer dominant we exit IF it is the first leg of a pattern. B to F to H to "X" to J to A. Or if more bars are involved: B to F to Q to R to "x" to J to A. If a dominant trend is going beyond the first move of a pattern safely, then we hold through the nondominant portion of the pattern after the pattern has broken past the RTL of the former three part trend pattern. B to F to Q to S to "x" to J to A. Or if more bars are involved: from S to V to U to W to Y and to Q then to S to V to U to W to Y and to Q, etc, then to "x" to J to A. Further, the non dominant portion of the pattern can be more evokative due to two things: 1. The post FTT volume (The volume after) can be large, or 2. The non dominant trip to the RTL includes an IBGS following a doji which sets up the IBGS possibility. (the M node). Look at the routes for these possibilities: R to T to U to N to Z. S to V to U to N to Z. F (and D) to L to M G (and D) to L to M F to NOT L to M G to NOT L to M M to N N to P to E to F To the beginning potential trader none of this is known and understood. Most potential traders do not enter the market anywhere near bar 1 of a day simply because they are so frightened that they NEED to wait until they calm down by seeing something familiar. These people may still be in their first 10,000 hours of inexperience, for example. Greed leads to failure. We can pass on that discussion. The exact science thread has a lot to do with Behavioral Finance and especially overcoming very legitimeantly based CONTINUING AND ALMOST PERMANENT FEAR. No detractors have gotten to the point of taking a first step in non CW trading of any sort. Being too smart to do any non CW trading is a humorously based riddle.Ignorance and stupidity, however, are two different things. Stupid people may be fearless but they more tend to dig in their heels and not go anywhere mentally. Smart people who are ignorant can and often do overcome their ignorance. They only do this if the risk is not too great. FEAR of trying is what most often outwieghs the fear of losing. People who fear losing are always destined to NOT try. The "Unusual Volume one pager makes a great example. Fear of losing a given viewpoint has caused for many years one of our detractors from backtesting the Unusual Volume one pager. Watch fear continue this status of this detractor. remaining ignorant is a better choice than the risk of doing the first step. Now, here we WILL get past bar 1 and bar 2, because we CAN remove the fear of moving forward small step by small step. Do one log for one day is a bigger next, but possible step. Using an enlarged flow sheet, and logging on the provided log, enter the bars and seconds only for events that are observed. Don't try to keep up with all the other columns as time passes. Fill them in after hours by working slowly through the flow sheet to locate the series of nodes that correspond to the noted bars and the times of an event. The first few events to consider are: the PRV value @ 12 seconds in. the "lockin when volume equals the prior bar. Bars that do not make lock in before the end of the bar. all doji's the second they occur. All IBGS's that PASS the N test by REVERSING the sentiment. Do midday by annotating the DU/VDU period. Note when volume exceeds the prior peaking volume. See if you can find the PM breakout bar. None of these items involve RISK See if the continuing FEAR can subside after a week or so of doing "observations" noted above. by just logging the "times" of events, a reference on the chart is established. Later after hours, you can go back and figure out the node associated with the time. then you can begin to connect the nodes as "orders of events" that relate to market operations and, in turn, making money where the emotions are positive andconstructive. For a lot of detractors, doing this process is too EXPENSIVE in terms of the costs. They would rather spend their time doing detractions which are relatively valuable to each of these people. None of the above items for logging can be more important to a detractor than the value of detracting.
Jack, I have always wanted to let out a huge fart in a crowded elevator, but fear has held me back. Thanks man, with your methods I think I can now succeed.
Jack, it seems like the method is pretty good, in the sense of not setting up the targets, only with big or middle dom moves. But if you look at the 22oct2010 pm session,where we had a range-bound context, you`ll see that every trades that you didn`t set up the targets on would end up with loss or breakeven. Because by the time you are entering the trade in this nano segments, according to your signals, the magnitude of the move is almost spent. In this context you shoul either front running your signal or set up the targets at the upper bound or do both or not deal with them at all. p.s. may be you can provide us with the log of the 22oct2010, pm session?