Your illustration covers the time before item 1 in my frenchfry 2 illustration dated 18OCT10 and provided to ET at the time stamp dated. As you do not see in your illustration for your post, by this time (your illustration shows 298 and 294 on the "seconds"), we all are at N. This path is shown on frenchfry 2 illustration. Notice the box on the lower right labelled "N". There are several things you can consider: 1. My detailed posts to you are insufficient in detail for you to follow the details in the thinking required. 2. Several times in your postings of this and the five following illustrations, you make mistakes reading the flow chart 3. And you make mistakes reading my previous TWO laps on this bar 1 of the 18th for your benefit. I conclude you are not yet sensitive to watching charts and I will bet that you do not do logs. Further I would bet that you do not journal when you get an emotiional signal. When you get an emotional signals you begin a 2 step process in journalling. Step 1 is to journal the emotion. Step 2 is to journal the reasoned change in your technique. I can do this journaling for you so you can get the results of the changes you are going to be making at some point in the future. Would you mind correcting all the mistakes you made on the slides just posted? Hand draw my flow chart on a sheet not less than 22" by 30", the standard size art sheet used for determining the "weight" of paper. Use sharpies to do this work. Be prepared to do it over if you get it wrong. Photograph and post the results so we can get on the same page. Also on an 11" by 17" draw a picture of a doji and ,along side of the doji, draw a line of the path of the ticks forming the doji. You do not know how bars form as yet and now is the time to begin to look, with sensitivity, at the process of bar formation. Also you are reading MADA's posted on the list of mada's and seeing that two are identical. Fix this mistaken impression. Also on that page with the doji, letter in red the N test. You are doing this to come to understand that you have "pass" and "fail" perfectly backwards. You are doing the test wrong ans, consequently you get the opposite results required of you. Once you have these two things done correctly, you can begin the process of "correcting" the mistakes in your slide illustrations. Notice that you are "repeating" doing bar 1 and bar 2 day after day in ET. I have followed and contributed corrections to each lap you have taken on this effort. From now on YOU correct getting bar 1 and bar 2 straight. you will know when it is correct because you are running in parallel with my stated comments on what is going on. My statements are the standard of taking ever tick possible form the market's offer. Make a time chart of joe Paterno's posting rate by dividing his posts into percentiles so the chart contains 100 bars. Note on the chart the time elapsed to complete each percentile. we are going to examine his career on ET. His first post demonstrates how he began a thread on his first post and ZERO people responded to his knowledge and skill level at that time. This probably a record for some category on ET. We will figure out the category later. I am a distinguished scientist of global recognition. Everyone, daily, experiences personally, the results of my moving the science frontier forward in three specific ways. My recognition as the NSF "Science Program of the Year"is on the record as the initial program of the NSF when it entered the realm of supporting the study of what is now known as the "Environment". No other NSF program leader can make this statement. Joe hasn't done his homework as you all will be finding out.
Long story short. You should be aware of the many others things besides MADA. Such as:dominant move, the magnitude of the move,S&R levels,main fibo lines down the road,unfolding patterns down the road et cetera...MADA and emotional journaling is NLP.It`s an order.It`s where the discipline comes out from....
I didn't think it was possible for someone so naive to still exist here. Let us try a different paradigm. When someone like Jack puts up thousands of posts that net out to zero, has left ET at least twice, has been roundly jumped on by many of the experienced ETers, and even some of his past devotees have turned on him as an empty vessel of knowledge. Perhaps the problem is Jack. I know that is hard for you to grasp, but... If you keep wishing to speaking in mentally deficient sound bites, you are doing a great job.
It`s funny as hell i came across this article by the Prospectus today. ______________________________ Trading System Thoughts: Context and Using Cumulative Tick on ES/NQ By Prospectus My time is being stretched in many directionsâcustom projects, donor requests, beginning iPhone app development, and working on my own trading skills. This post is one focused on my recent trading thoughts. First, an unsolicited testimonial. Iâve been part of Richard Toddâs Move the Markets Team for a while now. I find it to be incredibly valuable. If you are looking for a community of experienced traders that are serious about improvement, both of themselves and of newer members, look no further. I recommend it highly. There are a lot of free areas to start with, and if you want to go deeper, he charges a modest monthly fee for full access. As part of a conversation I had recently with Richard, I was once again reminded about the importance of market context. As I talked about in my WWJT posts, in a trending market, almost ANY trend-following setup will work. In a choppy environment, almost ANY trend-following setup will die horribly. The specific setup DOES NOT MATTER. There is no âbestâ set of parameters to filter out the losers on a setup basis. The problem is not with the setup, itâs with the market context. A raincoat is not the best clothing to wear on all days, just on rainy ones. Flip flops are ideal footwear on the beach, but not for climbing Mt. Everest. You pick your clothes based on the weather context you expect to encounter. Donât agonize over whether a blue raincoat or a yellow raincoat works best, and donât look for the magic set of sandals that keep you warm even on a snowy day. Metaphor overload, core dump⦠The most important thing is to identify when the markets are likely to trend, and then to apply a trend-following setup (buy a pullback in a trend, buy a breakout, etc.) or sit out. Conversely, identify when the markets are choppy and listless, and apply a range-bound setup or sit out. I have demolished myself in the past two Augusts by playing dummy trades (trend continuation) in a seasonally flat and choppy market. I get stuck in the trap of obsessing over the entry, target and stop parameters, so I needed this reminder to get back on track. I believe your time is best spent practicing contextual skills rather than mining for the Holy Grail setup or magic parameters. Try these steps: 1. Become proficient in identifying chop and trends after the fact. This one should be relatively self evident. Look at the dayâs chart after the close, and annotate where the trends were, and where the chop was. Continue to do this on intraday charts until you can do it instantly and effortlessly. 2. Go to live data and practice identifying whether the market is in a trend or in chop RIGHT NOW. Donât worry about if the market is going to keep trending or keep chopping. Just correctly identify what it is currently doing. Continue until you can do it instantly and effortlessly. 3. The last step is to start to try to predict what is likely to happen next during the day. Will the trend be likely to continue? Will the range probably be broken? Many things can give clues to this including volume, time of day, support/resistance levels, tape speed, pending news announcements, and so forth. Along the way you should also gain the skill of predicting whether a trading day may be trending or choppy before the day begins, and also knowing what events and price levels would imply a change to that prediction. This one can take years of screen time to become proficient. Patience and work are needed! I have started to notice myself having the beginnings of this skill. I can only chalk it up to screen time. Watching what has worked, what has failed and what has generally happened in the past. Feeding years of price data into the most complicated neural network there is: the human brain. Note that in all of these things, I have mentioned words such as âlikely to continueâ and âprobablyâ. None of this is an exact, deterministic science! You also have to be able to think, make decisions and accept outcomes probabilistically. That means that the specific outcome of any one event does not determine whether a probabilistic decision was the right one or not! In a deterministic situation, the outcome judges the decision. Gravity always pulls you down to the earth, 100% of the time. Jumping off a cliff is always a bad idea, because you will always plunge to the bottom. In a probabilistic situation, itâs the odds up front and the information you had at decision time that say whether a decision was the right call or not. The odds will play out to a degree of ârightnessâ in the long run, even though you may be taking a beating in the short run. This way of thinking is very difficult for many to attain, including myself.................
If these don't give Jack's Kool-Aid drinkers pause, they deserve what they get. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2826710#post2826710 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2826977#post2826977 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2828169#post2828169 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2832629#post2832629 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2871255#post2871255 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2871733#post2871733 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2878379#post2878379 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2741915#post2741915 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2691400&#post2691400 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2721381&#post2721381 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1940582#post1940582
All necessary information seem to be there but somehow I seem to filter out some of them or misinterpret them. This morning for example I found three things I'm sure I read more than once but my mind saved them in another way so they were not available when I needed them. Yes, I will need to re-draw the flow chart to better understand it and I will need to understand each component of it. One of them where I seem to have trouble is the "N" test or "IBGS box". I made two drawings to see if I understand the (for me) cryptic description of "N": N is a test box where pass is one tick further in sentiment than the doji price value. Fail is when a doji occurs but remains limited to open current value or less in the direction of the current sentiment. Maybe outsource can make another "kids" version of it? Or maybe Tikki, charts or PTVtrader can share their understanding? Thanks. P.S. Jack, since when are you into betting or probability? Do I log? I do more than that. I document the market's action and show my thought process. This helps me see what I know or don't know. This could also help others who didn't for whatever reason ask those questions and it is there for you to better visualize what I'm doing where. My log even though it is "wrong" is only two bars. If you can't get one or two bars correct then there is no need to go further and repeat the same mistakes on other bars. And the log is only for the 18th because that's the day for which I have your log as a reference. The other possibility could have been the 15th. Greetings
Great work frenchfry. Keep it up! As I understand it, a pass of the N test feedbacks to Z which is a choice node of either "X"[where J or K failure occurs- both are exits that feedbacks to A] or E,(reverse- mada#14) which is a choice node for F or G which are both holds for H,J, or L. If N test fails, Feed back to node P which feedbacks to E or Q, which holds to the end of bar. hth