Thank you so much for your contribution. It is important to make the connection of cycle 1 trading WITH the annotations of the patterns. You can actually visualize and understand two fractals down from the medium weight fractal. Soon we will add a shell around the core, cycle1, to add trading non dom's when they occur in association with the dom pause dom trading of cycle 1. today I introduced the dom, then dom possibility. It will be the cornerstone of cycle 3 at which time the patterns on the medium weight and all other faster fractals will be "observable", when it is possible to observe. every 15 points , when trading 2 contracts, allows the trader to add a contract from profits only. Sit at 5 contracts for a week (5 days) to get used to the fact that 1 point is 250 dollars of profit. After a week you can move to 10 contracts and STAY there through out cycle 2, the dom...non dom...dom experiences.
I observe 3 out of three posters aremaking money today. Reliable stats (1% of practitioners win, other do not win , maybe) say that 297 people using cycle 1 are losing today. Please, if you are losing, do an outcry. This forum, as shown in the past, is outcry positive.
agreed NEXT TOPIC A lot of poeple missed the lesson on the 2 trades a day and its corrollary:do not use targets. For example see pages 1 through 5 yesterday. there were 16 non targetted dom trades during the day. they totalled about 72% of margin for the day. There are only 204 trades in all 5 cycles. Was it you who provided with this chart,or...? Everything should be in its right place..
Has anyone here, besides me, read "The Strange Last Voyage of Donald Crowhurst." I could highly recommend it to anyone still trying to follow this thread.
Jack, Just catching up. Thanks for your logs (very helpful). A pt.3 long that started at bar 73 on Friday 10/15/10 ftt'd around 10:16 Monday at bar 10. So a sequence shift of dominance (dom-black to dom-red) occurs on bars 11-13, which then makes bars 14-18 non dom. I assume by your log that this shift in dominance is cycle 2 trading. Dominance resumes on bar 19 and price has a ve that gets handled on bar 21. I don't understand why you consider bar 22 a cycle 2? Is it because the ve was handled? I can see bars 28-34 being cycle 2... btw,I don't think you posted page 3 of your log.
Yes, you are correct. 60 days and 204 trades. Five, 12 day, cycles. Laying out an Excel sheet is fun. It can represent a plan. The spread sheet can also be used as a record. The spreadsheet is a learning tool. the spreadsheet can be used as a comparison of progress made in acquiring skills and knowledge. Traders set targets for trades and for days. The time they spend doing this makes them aware of how trading days go and how markets work. Lets say a person looked at the "bottom line" (trade 204 on day 60), he could conclude that he would NOT use the Excel simply because of a set of reasons he thought up. Google: detractors.) Outsource has become "The Repeater" by just doing 2 trades a day. He can shorten the Excel by deleting all the extra lines and lower the number of contracts "grown" by his daily proceeds. Now it is a new Excel for the repeater. It is the repeater Excel. Another person could pencil in his total daily trades and see how he is doing COMPARED TO THE PLAN of the Excel. Look at the column labelled "time in"; a person could fill in the time he was in the market each day he traded. From this he can subtract and get the "time out" as well. Over time he may find he spends more time in the market. I like your comment: "everything should be in its right place". I suggested that the pencilling in of the columns could be just the daily results for a given day of the 60 days. So far, you are not at day 1. It takes a while to get to day 1. you have looked at 2 bars of 2 days so far. you have a four bar total look see. By the same token, it is not fair for me to fill in the days. The Excel is not set up for what I am able to do. I excede the plan of the Excel. At the beginning of trading, what is nice for a potential trader to do is follow a plan, follow a strategy and follow a routine. The Excel is a plan. Trading dominants only, is a strategy. This is cycle 1's strategy. MADA is a routine. Look at the whole day of the 18TH. Think of it as a day. Learning cycle 1 stuff allowed 16 dominants to be traded. Only trades labelled 3, 6, 11, 13, and 14. were @ target or higher. But we had learned already that trading to hit targets was not a good idea. See your journal where you self-taught yourself this. What is done with all the other dominant trades that made money? They all made a contribution to profits which were used to add contracts. They also kept you on the correct side of the market AND kept you on the sidelines during nondominants. I labelled trades and there were 16 actually. Everyday, whole days of trading exceed the Excel cummulative totals for the day and for the progression of the days. This means the trading P&L exceeds the calls on the Excel. Excel will chart the P&L as well as the Excel cummulative projected target sum. The lines are divergent and the lower line is the Excel and the upper line is the realized P&L. Two columns are used to construct this illustration. You say "everything should be in its right place". Well it is and it can be adjusted. More columns can be added too. Lets say a person goes for broke adding contracts from profits and doing all the trades of a given strategy. What happens? He learns to deploy a strategy and make money at the same time. Some self taught lessons are getting clear. A person does not have to trade everyday. Any day's trading makes more money than a salary makes at any job once the strategy gets to a higher level. We will do 10 levels. Trade stocks until you can afford to become a day trader of commodities is a loud and clear lesson. Position trade long doms. Practice trading commodities of a whole day can be done after hours at a rate of about 40 minutes per 5 min bar real day by filling in logs seated at a table. An additional piece of cardboard is needed. Why don't we divide up the year in months and each do the 20 to 22 logs for the days of each month starting in January. We can repeat the year when we do each cycle, by simply adding on the additional trades. We will find by the end of cycle 2 we have done all five cycles and seen what a year's of dom and non dom trades yields. What do you think the average percent of margin is a years worth of days is averaged? How far into the year is it before you can pay cash for a house?
Page 3 was in chart form. It handled the midday period. Look closely at the top of page 4 and you see the profits taken. With regard to cycle 2 stuff, I am sneaking in some learning. Also you are getting to see the gist of cycles 3, 4, and 5 where two consecutive Doms are NOT separated by anything. On bar 52, today (19OCT10) you probably noticed all we did for the rest of the day was play the R, S ,N reversal game. R, S and N refer to three oft used nodes when you are making multi point consecutive trades without ever leaving the market. Do you see those Hershey Hinges yet????? It is realy tough to slow down learning to trade since it is so simple. I have posted some flow charts to get you through a few bars. You saw that I only logged about 1/4 of what was happening as time passed.
Right now (for cycle 1), I like looking at the pt 3 trough and the ftt(non-dom with sentiment shift). It gets me in a little late but very comfortable cycle 1 trading.