It is not the length of time so much, but the number of trades in a given time. If the guy executed 50 trades in a year I would tend to agree with you. If he executed 4000, ALMOST NO WAY is it luck. I used to believe the same thing. I have since moved towards the middle on this. Still extremely skeptical, but with a somewhat open mind. Do you know how Getco became Getco? They were on the ropes very early on. They saw in the back of Futures or S&C magazine an add for a market making system by some "clown". They decided to ask the person in - what do they have to lose right? After some understanding of how it worked, they decided it seemed reasonable and they decided to buy it. Well, that system made them a huge amount of $, tens of millions if not hundreds of millions. It changed them forever. I have come to the conclusion that just about anything in trading can work. It is how it is put together that counts, and the scientific mindset of the person putting those pieces together. The business side of trading is also hugely underestimated. Some people have a nack for making things work. Some people can't take the Holy Grail and make it work. As far as ex-traders teaching instead of trading, I have also come to the conclusion that it is very possible to be an honest venture. People burn out, but they don't want to be idle traveling the world and otherwise leading a life with no [intellectual/professional] direction. They do what they love and what has worked for them in the past, reinventing themselves. Is this guy for real? I have no idea. I am just saying that the arguments made against him are not good and not based on logic. Be skeptical, but keep an open mind.
Hmmm. I played or maybe "executed" 4000 hands of blackjack recently. Owing to the house edge of about 0.45%, I should have lost about £200, instead i WON £1530. Does that prove i have an edge? Of course not! I was lucky to the tune of about 2.3 standard deviations.
Nitro, thanks for posting those videos. Like the guy in it, i did the same, i sent my trading record (I was trading a small account during my years in college) to various firms when i graduated from university. Didn't take long to be hired .
Good post Nitro... Interesting that you mention the story about GETCO (which is well substantiated btw). The trade, fwiw, was based on the quarterly roll. If I recall the story correctly, it was within a very short time frame (4 times a year).
Etrade paid for me to attend a Three Day Seminar with Oliver Velez and Greg Capra, the biggest waste of money ever! We got a trial subscription to their live calls from their Trading Room. I know we all speculated they were nothing more than the reincarnated Tokyo Joes of South Beach, Florida. Do any of you follow or listen to Pristine? I gave my subscription away and told Etrade it was the biggest waste of time. Stock Scanners and the ability to find "Shakers" was 99.99% more accurate than their methods. We had a kid make a massive option trade on the DIA and QQQQ using $5,000,000. He was a 24 year old Jewish kid and the look on Greg and Oliver's face when he made $1.2 million intra-day on one of those wild DOW Swinging days. I watched the videos above and he sounds cool, much better Capra and Velez. I have been around for decades and it seems that even if you have a good teacher, the Trader begins to regress back to his former patterns that caused him to loose his money. One area of education no class is going to teach you is to avoid talking to "Hoodoos" and "scared money" on Yahoo Messenger, I had some idiot help destroy two months of gains because I was so stupid, I picked up the phone and baby sat him during his massive loosing streak. His fear costed me my cash, he would sell out and say "you need to sell" after hearing that for twenty minutes I sold only to watch the stock move up another two bucks. Finally I dumped all contact with any traders during Market Hours. I hope everyone here learns that, their fears and poor game will rub off on you and you will loose because they bring bad luck.
Look at his video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNQXn2pxBb8 1. a "watchlist" 2. trendline 3. simple option break down!? ....he is a very good one if you want to learn how to do big marketing with TV and stuff, but trading...lol...he definitely was a salesman kind of trader, and that is what he is doing now too! Salesman!
is there is any shortcut? ---ex Goldman Sachs Trader Tells Truth about Trading -- what's the truth? just make it short