Ewj: elliott wave

Sorry! Wrong Again.

Elliott Wave Principle has some limitation. This may be Subminuette Wave 3.2:c extension, though Microwave 3.2:civ is much smaller than Microwave 3.2:cii. A small reverse head and shoulders is completed. A larger reverse head and shoulders is in the making, will this one fail or will it turn out to be a more bullish market. The rosy Guess returns to haunt the Bears again.
A throughout scrutinyis required. Is it really 5 waves down and 3 waves up as we have count or a 3 waves down and wave 1-2-smaller 1-2-smallest 1-2-3-?

I'm wrong, Elliott Wave Principle is always right.

 

Elliott Wave Strategies.

Different degrees of Elliott Wave are suitable for different strategies. Micro Wave degree (i,ii,iii,iv,v,α,β,γ,δ,ε) may be used in momentum trading, buy/sell when previous Microwave high/low is broken and set stop 2 point lower/higher. Aborted trade is more likely in Microwave γ and shortened Microwave v. If these two waves are avoid, momentum trading may be more profitable.
Buy when Microwave 3.2:ciii surpassed Microwave i is profitable (+44 points and if not stop out + 64 points). Buy when Microwave 3.2:cv surpassed Microwave iii is less profitable (+30 points). Sell when Microwave 3.2:bγ surpassed Microwave 3.2:bα is less profitable still (+16 points).
This strategy bases on the assumption that if a high/low is broken the Dow will continue to move in that direction for more than 3 points because of the momentum of the Market.
Subminuette Wave 3.2:a is ~108 points long. Microwave 3.3:ci,iii,v are ~94, 90 and 89 respectively. Subminuette Wave 3.2:c is ~ 185 or 1.7 times Subminuette Wave 3.2:c. If this guess is correct, next move should be Minute Wave 3.3 down > Minute Wave 3.1.
If Dow opens up more than one point, Microwave iii will be shorter than both Microwave i and v, which is not allowed in Elliott Wave Principle, I will be wrong again, as usual, and have to recount the waves.

 

S&P and NASDAQ Minute Wave V)IVc]1)3.2 might have ended at 1463.76 and 2562.1499, this will be confirmed when they close below 1432.36 and 2501.6899.
Both Microwave V)IV)c]1)3.2:cii and Minute Wave V)IVc]1)3.2 are zigzag waves with extended c/γ waves. Similarity between smaller and larger degree waves occurs from time to time.

 

What went Wrong?

The Market, the Elliott Wave Principle or me?
The Market can do no wrong, except burning a few Bears here and a few Bulls there. The Elliott Wave Principle can accommodate any Market move. It is me, who should not have counted a wave which has not yet ended.

I would return to long term, for good.

Elliott Wave Principle is perfect for long term investors, I mean really long long term. If you are lucky enough to get a big lots of Dow components as your birthday gift on Wednesday, March 13, 1935 and you have so much faith in Elliott's telegram to Collins which stated "NOTWITHSTANDING BEARISH (DOW) IMPLICATIONS ALL AVERAGES ARE MAKING FINAL BOTTOM" (Prechter,1980), so that you stick to the "Buy and Hold onto it and Hold on" strategy and keep those components updated until Jan 14th, 2000, when you retired, you would have get 121.5 times your birthday gift.
If you added all dividends to the pool and did "Dollar-Cost Averaging" at every dips to wave 2 and 4 of every degrees, you would get even more return.

 

Long Waves.

Today Guess.
Primary Wave IV)c] is unfolding. Intermediate V)1]4) is still possible.
Tomorrow Guess.
Primary Wave IV)c] is unfolding. Intermediate V)1]4) is still possible.
The Day After Tomorrow Guess.
Primary Wave IV)c] is unfolding. Intermediate V)1]4) is still possible.

 

M&m

 

Impulse waves and Corrective waves.

Impulse waves are easy to discern. Corrective waves are prone to corrections, you may have to make two or three corrections before the correct count appeared which may be to late to regain your reputation, like someone who began to predict correction 20 years ago.

Someone's advice is to "predict only the Bull Market", everyone will forgive and forget if you are wrong. If you predict a Bear Market that don't materialize, they will never forgive you.

Impulse waves go only one direction with few variations. They may be longer or shorter than expected.
Corrective waves have three directions to go with more than twenty variations. They can elongate into a complex correction too. The odd of predicting a correct corrective wave is 1 in 20.

So I would not guess a correct wave again.

 

The Rosy and the Middle Path guesses gain support from a new line. This may push the Dow, S&P and NASDAQ a measured move to 13574.94, 1505.03 and 2626.26 respectively.

 

The top of wave 'B' will determine the winner, the Rosy Guess of impulse Intermediate Wave V)V1]5) or the Middle Path Guess of triangular Minor Wave V)IV1]4)c.
The Last Hope of the Bear Guess is irregular Minor Wave V)IVc]1)2 to end somewhat above Minute Wave V)IVc]1)2.a. The running correction guess is out when the Dow closes above August 24th, 2007 top.

I will not make an uneducated guess here. Let the Market shows.

 

The BIG BATH is coming as you predicted.