Ewj: elliott wave

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mu200411, Aug 13, 2007.

  1. Microwaves.
    13,381.2305-Microwave V)IVc]1)3.1:1i-13,308.4805-Microwave ii-13,378.6299-Microwave iii-13,159.0703? (?=still unfolding).
    Submicrowave iii.v which has fall below the end of Microwave V)IVc]1)2.c:4r may end here and rebound to 13,255 as Submicrowave iv or just continue falling as an extended wave iii.
    Submicrowave v should break the 13,121 level to confirm the worst case scenario.
    #51     Aug 28, 2007
  2. Nice call on the short term S&P & Dow wave 2 top.
    I don't do wave analysis but my target once we broke the rising wedge yesterday was 1435 on ES (based on the fed faux rate cut high low last Friday; a few points below 1438 pivot on S&P but I'm surprised how quickly we got here). Do you think we will rise from here to make another round of highs (i.e. high 1400s or low 1500s) to make a more discernible a-b-c pattern on the wave 2 or do you see us bouncing a little to work off the oversold condition and go straight back down to the medium term low?

    Keep it up & thanks.
    #52     Aug 28, 2007
  3. Subminuette Wave 2 ended?

    Thanks JSL_Capital.

    Subminuette Wave 3.1:5 has shown 5 microwaves, Minuette Wave V)IVc]1)3.1 might have ended at 13,041.8496 below the new Fed line at 13,076.71. A rebound of Minuette Wave 2 is imminent, to Subminuette 3.1:4 at ~ 13,183, then Minuette Wave 3 will resume the current down episode (minitrend). Minuette Wave .3 may be longer than Minuette Wave .1 which is ~ 337 points long.
    Target by the Head and Shoulder is ~ 12,500, near the previous low of 12,445.9199. Intraday Low target by measure move is 13,402.2002.-(14,121.04 - 12,445.9199) = 11,727.0801 or ~ 11,730 for Minor Wave V)IVc]1)3.
    #53     Aug 28, 2007
  4. 1364 target (for a double flat) b4 retest (& final fail) of prevoius highs...the only issue is whether the blood spilt from a retest of the recent lows causes further panic selling & an additional 5-10% drop!!! Then it could be game over...but lets go with bull market correction for now until the mist clears.
    Buyers should appear end Sep early October!!
    peace & profit
    #54     Aug 28, 2007
  5. Double Errors.
    To guess the extent of a rebound, when the down wave has not yet ended, is a risky business. If the down wave does not end as guessed we get double errors.
    If the five waves down of both S&P and NASDAQ,wave 3.1, have ended, wave 3.2s tend to (not a must) rebound to the ends of wave iv of a lesser degree, wave 1)3.1iv, i.e., ~1450 and ~2530 respectively.
    #55     Aug 29, 2007
  6. Thanks Ubertrader.

    A bigger reverse head and shoulders has appeared. It may be a cause of concern for the Bears. Take care at the subprime trendline. Insider stock buys will take effect now or in twelve months?
    #56     Aug 29, 2007
  7. Nice call again! :)

    Now, this thing looks a little impulsive (do I see five waves already? 1 to1447, 2 to 1439.25 3 to 1450 4 to 1447 then 5 stalling at 1453 all on S&P futures which I trade; sorry I'm a total ew noob and have no experience in counting) and we have GDP & Bernanke rest of the week, on which the market has usually rallied in the past year. How do you think prices will unravel from on? I really wouldn't be surprised if we went all the way to the reverse H&S or evel low 1500s and then fail.

    But I do hope to participate in the BIG BATH, whenever that happens :)

    #57     Aug 29, 2007
  8. The Dow, S&P and NASDAQ have turn down after Minute wave 3.2 show a-b-c pattern with 5 subwave in c. Could this be the end of Minute wave 3.2. They also show measured moves.
    #58     Aug 29, 2007
  9. Thanks JSL_Capital.

    At Dow ~13194, S&P ~1450 and NASDAQ ~2534, Minute Wave V)IV3]1)3.2 has shown Minuette Wave 2.a-.b-.c and Subminuette Wave 2.c:1-:2-:3-:4-:5 near the end of Minutte Wave 2.4 and at measured moves (Minuette 2.c = Minuette 2.a), this may be the end of Minute Wave V)IV3]1)3.2 and Minute Wave 3.3 has begun, unless Minuette Wave 2.c extends.
    #59     Aug 29, 2007
  10. I agree with your five waves, but it looks like wave 2 has ended and wave 3 is gaining momentum on the down side.

    Thanks and hope you had.
    #60     Aug 29, 2007