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# Ewj: elliott wave

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mu200411, Aug 13, 2007.

1. ### mu200411

Errata:
End of wave 2 should be < 13,380 not 13,480.

wave 2 < 13,235.8799 + (13,236.1299-13,090.8604) = 13,381.1494

Wave Minuette 3 < Wave Minuette 1 so Wave Minuette 5 should be < Wave Minuette 3. (Wave 3 must not be the shortest wave).

S&P wave 2 < 1462.50+(1464.0699-1445.5500) = 1481.0199
NASDAQ wave 2 < 2541.70+(2552.8000-2508.5901) = 2585.9099

#41     Aug 24, 2007
2. ### mu200411

To count an incomplete wave is not a good practice, because it is prone to error. It may be just Elliott Wave Guessing, not Elliott Wave Counting.
Let's play a guessing game.

Elliott Wave Guess1.

"Waves 1 (9 sub-waves) and 2 (3-3-5? to 13,380?{edited}) are waves of Minor degree by date, but of Intermediate degree by size".
If we relocate the orthodox top of Intermediate Wave V)V1]3) to June 4th, 2007, we will get an Intermediate degree correction by date, a double zigzag that ended on August 16th, 2007. The first part is an irregular flat that ended on August 3rd, 2007.
This is the most bullish one, the Dow is going to run through the 14121 roof soon without any correction below 13,245.7998 the end of the first Minuette Wave V)V1]5)1.1, which should be the limit of Minor Wave V)V1]5)2 that should begin on August 27th, 2007 if Minuette Wave V)V1]5)1.5 is not extended.

One more error to be counted, the 4th.
I should have made this count after Dow 14,200.

#42     Aug 25, 2007
3. ### mu200411

Elliott Wave Guess2.

Intermediate Wave V)V1]3) ended on July 19th, 2007. We have seen Minor Waves V)V1]4)a and b. Minuette Wave V)V1)4)c.a is a three, so Minor Wave V)V1]4)c may turn out to be a triangle, ascending or horizontal or descending. Three more guesses!!!
These guesses will be wrong if Dow breaks 13,769.62 or 12,455.93 before a complete 3-3-3-3-3 has developed.
In these guesses the Bulls and Bears get even-handed, that is they have equal chances to be burnt.:eek:

Three more guesses to be proof wrong soon.
I should have made these guesses after I saw a 3-3-3-3-3.

As for the "Waves 1 (9 sub-waves) and 2 (3-3-5? to 13,380?) are waves of Minor degree by date, but of Intermediate degree by size. Wave 3 may be >1000" guess, I should have made it after Dow breaks 12,455.93.

#43     Aug 25, 2007
4. ### mu200411

Which way to go?

We have seen Google Earth Map, country map and street maps of the Dow. The Dow has only three ways to go, Up, Down or sideways. From the upward entrance, we see the sub-prime people, the short-term and medium-term investors running out. From the downward entrance we see the Fed, the long-term investors and the 61.8% Fibonacci people coming out. The 38.2% Fibonacci and the large head and shoulders peoples are choosing their ways.
Now that the small reversed head and shoulders and the 5-wave patterns have come to an end, which way to go?

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#44     Aug 25, 2007
5. ### mu200411

Go with the Winner? The answer is.
Whoever wins, whether the Fed and the long term investors, i.e. big banks, or the sub-prime trendline and the horde of traders and small investors, go with them.
How do we know which side wins?

#45     Aug 25, 2007
6. ### mu200411

By watching the Dow!

The Dow is the final result of the fight between bulls and bears, the subprime trendline and the F's support level (Fed and Fibonacci), the short SMA and the long SMA, etc.

The Fed has raise the support line (of the Big Banks to their subsidies) from 10% to 30%, that is to say from Dow 12,845.78 to ((14000.41-12845.78)*.2+12845.78) = 13076.71.

Worse Case Scenario:
The Market opens down from the subprime trendline, bounces a little at 38.2% Fibonacci, bounces again at top of Subminuette Wave V)IVc]1)2.c:1 and new Fed's support, and again at 61.8% Fibonacci and the first 2007 Fed's support, then free fall follows into Minor Wave V)IVc]1)3.

Sideways Scenario:
The Market opens up above the subprime trendline, then falls back to 38.2% Fibonacci, bounces at top of Subminuette Wave V)IVc]1)2.c:1 and new Fed's support, falls again to 61.8% Fibonacci and the first 2007 Fed's support, then jumps back to subprime trendline. And the fight goes on until Intermediate Wave V)V1]4) ends with triangular Minor wave 4)c.

Best Case Scenario:
The Market gaps up a lot above the subprime trendline into wave 5 extension of the sub-wave of Primary Wave V)V1]5) or Intermediate Wave V)V]3) extension.

#46     Aug 26, 2007
7. ### mu200411

IPE.
So much for the Information part.
It's time to Plan the stops, to enter and exit the Market.
Have a good Execution on Monday.

#47     Aug 26, 2007
8. ### mu200411

Market movement is Random!

Wrong again. Subminuette Wave V)IVc]1)2.c:5 ends at 13,378.8701 instead of 13,380.0000 as I have guessed. I think the size of any movement of the Market is Random! No one can predict it to the nearest sixth decimal point even with the Supercomputer, because of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle, may be.

Minor Wave V)IVc]1)2 looks like a running correction, if it really is, Minor Wave V)IVc]1)3, about the length of Minor Wave V)IVc]1)1, will follow soon, as 5-5-5 waves of ascending degrees.
These Minor Waves will be upgraded to Intermediate V)IVc]1), 2) and 3) if Cycle Wave V)IV is a running correction and end above 10,000.

#48     Aug 28, 2007
9. ### mu200411

Only 2 degrees of freedom now?
The rosy Guess1 is less plausible now because of the weight of million houses on the subprime trendline.
The Middle Path Guess2 is still possible if the Dow closes up 70 points or more before going below 13,236.

#49     Aug 28, 2007