Ewj: elliott wave

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by mu200411, Aug 13, 2007.

  1. When Cycle Wave A]I)I ends all natural gas is exhausted too. A more efficient way to convert coal into BTX and gas may be developed or just because there is no competitor, coal related stocks soar into Cycle Wave A]I)II.
    All ocean liners have gone nuclear.

    All would be happy but for the sea peoples and the barbarians which had brought down the Ancient Egypt and Roman Civilization. This time it is the out shoots of the terrorists which gather more and more strength with more and more people die out because the end of natural oil and gas economy.

    With no cheap crude oil every countries guards only their own territories with solar powered vessels and vehicles. Monroe Doctrine is in effect again. Intercontinental trade is shut down.

    When coal runs out Cycle Wave A]I)III may have brought down the Dow below the end of Grand-supercycle Wave IV at ~160.
    #21     Aug 20, 2007
  2. Break out of wave IV] is significant, because "the guideline is that corrections, especially when they themselves are fourth waves, tend to register their maximum retracement within the span of travel of the previous fourth wave correction of one lesser degrees, most commonly near the level of its terminus" (Frost and Prechter, 1978).
    This is why the Fed puts all its effort to halt the August 2007 Correction above Dow 12K and S&P 1360 . If it succeeds there will be another wave up more than 21 months long, to Dow 16,800 or more, in the year of the election.
    If it fails and fails again at Dow 10,794, then we may see Dow 7,181 again.
    #22     Aug 20, 2007
  3. At this moment important patterns are unfolding:
    a reverse head and shoulder pattern,
    and the small wave v.

    Dow 12782 and S&P 1404 are also important.
    #23     Aug 20, 2007
  4. It seems like nobody dares to buck the Trend and the Fed.
    #24     Aug 20, 2007
  5. It looks more like an "M" than rSHS now and small wave iii down instead of small wave v up.
    #25     Aug 20, 2007
  6. Let us return to our business.

    If the 150 - 300 years Correction ends between Dow 570 and Dow 160 it may be Grand-supercycle Wave IV].
    To be a Millennium Wave FOUR it must end below the Dow level in 1783 or 1776 (that's about 1, no data), and may take 500 years like the Dark Ages. (The Year 2525?)
    #26     Aug 20, 2007
  7. In the year 2525 there is no coal,no natural gas and no crude oil. It looks like the time before industrial revolution, with 791 million world population.
    Technology may survive. Petrochemical Industry is replaced by biofuel-chemical Industry. Imagine yourself with your laptop, on the top of a hill, trading stocks, with your family, no car, no air pollution, no airplane, no sound pollution, and no way to return to city as we know it.

    The next Millennium Wave may begin in the year 2526 if the sea peoples and the barbarians have not turn our world into Planet of the Ape.
    #27     Aug 20, 2007
  8. I like long wave, especially the Millennium Wave, because no one would wait to proof me wrong in the year 2525.
    But who would like to proof Elliott is right have to wait until 2012, because he said that "there will be no correction as big as that in the year 1929 before 2012".
    Small waves are too difficult for newbie like myself. I have 3 alternative counts for any segment of waves. If there are 10 people in a room, there will be 30 alternative counts in that room.
    It was so confusing that Elliott told everybody to only accept the counts of those who graduated from his school.
    #28     Aug 21, 2007
  9. There should be World Forum for Elliott Wave Counters that every prominent Elliot Wave Followers convene after every 2 Cycle Waves to settle the differences and agree upon a consensus wave count for the day and a consensus prediction for another 10 years in order to regain the credibility of the Elliot Wave Principle and to make life easier for me, but for the time being I would make some simple and error prone counts for myself.
    #29     Aug 21, 2007
  10. Let me begin with the easy one, the 1949 - 1974 segment. I see waves running in two directions, 9 waves up and 5 waves horizontally, so I count them V)I1],2],3]1),2),3),4),5),4],5] and V)IIa],b],c],d],e].
    V) = Supercycle Wave, I = Cylcle Wave , 1] and a] = Primary Waves, 3]1) = Intermediate Wave.
    #30     Aug 21, 2007