Ewj: elliott wave

Bullish scenario 1.
The problem with Elliott Wave is that the wave may take more time than you think. Intermediate Wave 4) may just end as a running triangle a-b-c-d-e and the Market is going to new high soon.
The problem is "with what news?". No more good news?
Strategy 1.
Buy a lot of call.

 

Bearish Scenario 2.
Intermediate Wave 4) is an irregular correction. The present wave is 4)c.3:3 and 4)c.3:4 will follow to the tip of wave 4)c.3:1.
Head and Shoulders pattern points to 12000, 1250, 2300. Wave four of a lesser degree is a better target at 12050, 1374, 2340.
Strategy 2.
Open some long position as a gambling.

 

Is there a Scenario for choosing the right Scenario? lol

 

Status.
Hold long "Short position" and short "Short position".

This may be the reason why put/call ratio goes up again.
There are 4 measured move and one descending wedge.
The Market may rebound soon. But I can not see the fundamental reason that will make the Market rebound.
Mean reversion? Contrarian?

So the short "Short position" was closed at descending wedge and the measured moves.

Strategy.
Open some long position if there is a higher high on Monday.

 

Ok I asked peoples opinions a long time ago for SQNM and you guys asked me to post my own markups. I have been out of town and having some fun but now im back and ready to get to business.

The chart displays 2 areas I see as potential buys. The first one was identified (not in hindsight), but I did not buy there because I am not confident in the methodology yet and I know I am barely scratching the surface and have a lot to learn.

I have the second area drawn where I see a lot of confluence if we actually get a retracement from this point.

My only experience in EW is Miner and I have only been studying this for less than 3-4 weeks. I dont intend to use fibs as my only method (im price action and candlesticks for the most part right now)... but I see potential in this method of analysis.

Let me know what you guys think, thanks.

Another question I have is... what are the probabilities that we could retrace to the last turning point (end of 1:4, beginning of 2:4) and bounce again from there, without going to my target? Any ideas?

 

Futures point to higher open.
Plan to open long position at open.

 

Long positions opened. Set stop at the last low. Set target at the supposed wave one 4)c.3:3i.

 

Stop out.

 

Long positions entered again when there was a higher high near target. Set stop at the last low. If stop out, plan to enter short "Short position".

 

Five wave up with irregular correction. Prepare to close short "Long position" at measured move.