Ewj: elliott wave

Our EWDTer shouldn’t have ventured into corrective wave ii, iv and b trading, it is too risky. But the prospect of a ~119,11,27 points gain was too tempting to resist, so he plunged into a long position.

13122.4902 1452.180 2557.1299
Resistance at
13,241.25 1463.45 2584.28
and the 50 SMA.

He was too lucky for his own good, the Market moved up. The Market bumped at 25 SMA (5 day chart), he hesitated but then heard the Market murmured, “I think I can cross this one, but I hate the 50 SMA, it is too strong for me”, so he sit tight in the bumpy ride. After counting a double zigzag and seeing the Market hit the 50 SMA the seat was too hot, so he got out, etching out a small gain that might not worth the risk. He then knowingly made another wrong move by going short. It might be wave iv.β instead of wave v, because wave iv duration was still much smaller than that of wave ii, but he thought, like many trapped Bears, that he could beat the Market and get out soon enough.
He sold short when Ultrawave 4)c.c:aiv.β:αI.I fell below Tickwave 4)c.c:aiv.α:γIV. Then he counted Tickwave 4)c.c:aiv.β:αI, II, III, IV and V, he felt like JSL that “these bulls are buying the dips like crazy!” and this may be Infrawave 4)c.c:aiv.β:α instead of Microwave 4)c.c:av.i, so he became more cautious. He tolerated Infrawave :β because it ended just above Tickwave :αIV as expected. He expected “another round of sell off in the afternoon” like JSL said when the Market fell below Subminuette Wave iii but took JSL’s caution that “these bulls are buying the dips like crazy”. The Bulls came in drove in Tickwave :γIV which did not get above Tickwave :γI, so he looked for confirmation for Tickwave :γV in DJTA but it was not there, so he got out before the new low Bears Trap, when it was the “last chance for a turn around into Subminuette wave iv irregular correction” and “it seems the Market has taken the last chance”.
He had joined the Bulls, hadn’t he? He didn’t answer phone call.

The old chart has errors.

 

The Market is holding its secret.

Short and Long term investors in NASDAQ are doing fine, but the medium term investors suffer.
Shot and medium term investors in the Dow are suffering, only the long term investors are OK.:eek:
All investor groups in S&P are at a lost.

Whether the Market will follows the NASDAQ investors up or follows the S&P down, only the Market knows, it is the one to decide.

 

Subminuette Wave 4)c.c:aiv and v.
Scenario 1.
On Monday the Market, Microwave 4)c.c:aiv.ใ, may moves orderly up as five Infrawaves 4)c.c:aiv.ใ:i, :ii, :iii, :iv and :v pattern to
13241.25 1463.46 2584.28 Microwave 4)c.c:aiv.ใ
then fall down to
12966.01 1434.24 2522.09 Microwave 4)c.c:av
as Subminuette Wave Microwave 4)c.c:av.

Scenario 2.
The Market, accepting some human error in counting waves, opens down to
13053.88 1446.67 2556.83 Subminuette Wave 4)c.c:aiii
as Infrawave 4)c.c:aiii.v:v, then rebounds in Subminuette Wave 4)c.c:aiv to level
13140.61 1456.65 2567.83 Subminuette Wave 4)c.c:aiv
before falling down to
12866.67 1429.35 2513.32 Subminuette Wave 4)c.c:av
in Subminuette Wave 4)c.c:av.

Scenario 3.
The Market takes more time in sideways movement or move up more than expected, it may turn out to be a double zigzag correction. The target will be above those of scenario 1 and 2.

Scenario 4.
The Market moves up, up and away to complete the reverse head and shoulders pattern. This is the least probable scenario, but who know!

 

Buy signal
13140,1456,2568
Sell signal
13082,1449,2557

 

Target gain 200,7,17 points for long position
Target gain 29,2,0 points for short position, expect extend wave v
May be 2/3 of expected gain.

 

Gambler may buy at open, stop loss at sell signal.

 

Some targets reached.
Hesitate, to sell or not to sell

No wave to count.

 

Hopefully wait for wave :v
At target or at the end of wave i

 

A newbie is turning profit into loss.

 

Lesson 1. Don't ever defy target, even if it comes too quick.