Indices fell from MA(50) resistances. May be going DOWN to 14400, 1530, 3230, 5800. Gold's Bullish engulfing and Silver's Morning Star at the end of fifth wave. May go UP to $1300 and $20 before going DOWN again.
AUD/USD fell to 0.90365 as Wave :3 then rebounded as Wave :4. Next DOWN move Wave :5 may or may not make new low then followed by a rebound to near 0.935 or 0.98.
Crude Oil broke long term resistance trend line UP. Maximum measured move target may be above $200. There may be some resistances at: $103 = previous highs, measured move, 61.8% blue Fibonacci retracement. $104.5 = 161.8% advancement. $105.5 = 76.4% red Fibonacci retracement and measured move. $110 = previous top and measured move. $115 = previous top and measured move.
EUR/USD is sliding DOWN the left arm of the Head and Shoulders pattern. EUR/USD went as low as 1.29231 then rebounded. The sliding to 1.24 target may resume soon.
$USD went UP as expected to as high as 83.94 before some set back. Measured move target = 85.5. If Big Head and Shoulders pattern is confirmed targets may be 91 and 96. Note: Very very "Big W" pattern target = 121.
USD/JPY rebounded from support near 93. USD/JPY went UP near 76.4% retracement then fell as a Dark Cloud Cover. DOWN count measured move target = 91.2. UP count target is high above 103.
Posted by mu200411 on 08-14-07 02:30 AM: EWJ: Elliott Wave Jâ¦â¦â¦. EWJ: Elliott Wave Jâ¦â¦â¦. This thread is started by Elliott Wave newbie. This is not intended for serious technical analysts or traders. Just for fun. The wave counts will be changed frequently as Frost and Prechter wrote in the Elliott Wave Principle, 1978 : âwe will be the first to discard our predictions if the waves tell us we mustâ. Wave ONE] began some 6 to 3 million years ago with the genus Homo and ended 1 million years ago with the beginning of ice age when Homo erectus began replacing the other Homos. Sub-epochal Wave THREE] began about 500,000 years ago and ended 100,000 years ago with another ice age. Sub-epochal Wave FIVE] began 30,000 years ago when Homo sapiens sapiens ruled the earth and ended 13000 years ago. Agricultural Era Wave THREE) began with farming 11000 years ago and ended with a mini ice age from 3000 B.C. to 2000 B.C. which was Era Wave FOUR). Millennium Wave ONE began with ancient civilization in Egypt and ended when the sea people invaded and the Millennium Wave TWO began with the Greek Dark Age around 1000 B.C. Millennium Wave THREE was the time of Roman Empire from 594 B.C. to 476 A.D. European Dark Age was Millennium Wave FOUR. Centenary Wave I} 1000 â 1300 A.D. was the Age of the Popes who lost power during Centenary Wave II} 1300 â 1400 A.D. The Age of Kings was Centenary Wave III} 1400 â 1700 A.D. The Kings became less wealthy during Centenary Wave IV} 1700 â 1776 when England lost America. The Centenary Wave V} may run to 2012 as Elliott predicted or 2070 . -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-15-07 01:32 AM: According to Elliott (not Prechter) Super-cycle wave I] 1783 â 1835 = 52 years long Super-cycle wave II] 1835 â 1857 = 22 years long Super-cycle wave III] 1857 â 1929 = 72 years long Super-cycle wave IV] 1929 â 1942 = 13 years triangle wave If Super-cycle wave V] is 70 years long, it will end in 2012 as Elliott predicted. Only 5 years left to enjoy the market!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Centenary Wave correction will be greater than the corrections after 1835 and 1929 The Japanese Super-cycle wave V] might have been 47 years long, hence the 80% correction of the Nikkei from ~ 39,000 in 1989 to ~ 7600 in 2003 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-16-07 12:54 AM: For Elliott, the last Cycle wave I began in 1942, he did not say when it ended. For Prechter, the last Cycle wave I began in 1932 and Cycle wave III began in 1942. Two extra Cycle waves as compare to those of Elliott. Prechter is now looking for the end of Cycle wave V and the beginning of Grand Super Cycle wave correction which will last for 150 years. Elliott may be looking for the end of Cycle wave III from above and the beginning of Cycle wave IV which will last for 8 or 16 years. 16 years corrective wave is no big deal as we can see the Nikkei corrective wave from 1989 to 2003 low. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-16-07 11:47 PM: Prechter denounced Elliott's Thirteen Year Triangle on the basis that wave B,C and E (called 2,3 and 5 by Elliot) were "fives," instead of "threes" as all triangle legs must be. He went on to say "unfortunately, Elliott had made up his mind on an irrelevant point outside the Wave principle, namely that 1929-1932 was too short a time period to correct the previous Supercycle". I would like to suggest the third possible end point of Supercycle Wave IV at June 1949 low ~160 in addition to the second possible end point at April 1942 low ~ 95 and the first possible end point at June 1932 low ~ 42. My reasoning is that I can count 1932 - 1937 wave as a three, 1937 - 1942 wave would be a three as Prechter like, and 1942 - 1946 and 1946 - 1949 waves looked like threes. I think Elliott did not choose the third possible end point because he had insufficient data, or to be more precised insufficient time. These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Supercycle Wave Correction is wave TWO or FOUR. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-17-07 12:33 AM: Errata: These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Supercycle Wave Correction is wave TWO or FOUR. Should be: These three possible ends of Supercycle Wave IV are important because they will tell us, in fact, future us, in 150 years time that Prechter's 150 years Grand supercycle Wave Correction is Grand supercycle wave II} or IV} or just the beginning of Millennium Wave ALPHA. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-17-07 03:01 AM: Prechter counted 1932 - 1937 wave as Cycle wave I and 1937 - 1942 wave as Cycle wave II. This assumption led him to prominence by the "long-term super bull market in stocks" interpretation, October 1982, which in turn led him into trouble with "the bearishness of his forecasts in the time since October 1987 ". The supposedly Cycle wave V rose from 570.01 low in October 1974 to 2749.64 high in July 1987 or 482% in 5 year which is nearly equal to the 482% rise of the supposedly Cycle wave I which rose for 40.56 low in July 1932 to 195.95 high in March 1937 also in 5 years. The supposedly last Supercycle Wave V is 55 years long (in 1987), a little longer than Supercycle Wave I which is 52 years long. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-17-07 03:28 AM: If Prechter believed the Master's "irrelevant point outside the Wave principle, namely that 1929-1932 was too short a time period to correct the previous Supercycle", he might have forecasted the end of Supercycle Wave III to be as long as the newbie Supercycle Wave I which rose from 160.62 low in June 1949 to 1001.11 high in October 1965 or ~623%, or if it extended 3 time as long as the newbie Supercycle Wave I. So Supercycle Wave III might have been forecasted to rise from October 1974 low at 570.01 and end at 3552.75 or 10658.25 or to rise from July 1982 low at 769.98 and end at 4799.12 or 14397.36 and Prechter should have retained his prominence and the credibility of the Elliott Wave Principle. So sad he did not. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Posted by mu200411 on 08-17-07 04:38 AM: If he did, he would have a more optimistic view. He may forecasted that Cycle Wave IV would be equal to Cycle Wave II which dropped 43% from the January 1966 high of 1001.11 to October 1974 low of 570.01 or 50% or 61.8% (a fibonacci retracement). So the end of Cycle Wave IV may be forecasted to drop 50% from ~10600 or ~14400 to ~5300 or ~7200 in 8 years. Cycle Wave V may be equal to Cycle Wave I and rise to 33,000 or 44,800 in 1949 + 71 = 2020, the time when oil reserve is very low. Boeing Co., Exxon Mobil Corp., General Motors Corp. and United Technologies Corp. might have gone out of business.