Evolving Strategy

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by oldtime, Oct 20, 2011.

  1. One thing I've noticed about myself. I don't really want to trade. I just want everything to be the same all the time and I can put it on and have faith because it has been backtested I don't need to worry about it.

    Do any of you idiot nerds work on systems that constantly evolve?

    It started with a hand over there on the trading forum who was complaining it was all going well with his trend following system but then when it started chopping he gave it all back.

    Of course, a low risk low life like me just wants to come up with a system that works in trending AND chopping markets.

    Do any of you fool around with evolving systems?

    It goes back to my question of reducing size when things seem to be going too well, and increasing size when the gods seem to be unnaturally against you.
  2. I don't really want to trade. I just want to turn the market into an ATM machine I can go to any time I need money.

    But it keeps changing. Everytime I think I have it figured out, it starts doing something different.

    And then to make things worse, just to humiliate me, it goes back to doing what it has always done and makes me look like a fool for trying something unconventional.

    But I can't possibly be that smart. Has anybody that has noticed this tried to come up with a system that just evolves with the market?
  3. greetings oldtime,

    i am not sure, i understand what u mean.

    In strategy creation, it is important to fix all the bugs until it can not be a better strategy/ies. then it is a perfect stragegy, with an so much high win rate how possible. Then it is all done, there is then no envolving anymore.
    To do this you must be extremely conservative in your rules and decisions, and search for the most confirmations you can get out of the different price situations setups/strategies.....

    IMO, if a trader always keeps on envolving his strategies he trades, he is changing his rules all the time, and actually trades different rules then all the time, this bullshit must end in a mess....when someday the big loss comes.....

    of course researching on other not real traded strategies is a good thing, but only for urself understanding of the markets, and maybe to learn how to understand some confirmations more, you havent seen before....

    But, never change a winning system !!!!! NEVER !!!

    If you are in a winning rush, then you must be prepared for a loss on every new trade and therefore stay focused and only focus on your rules and what you have to do, dont give a shit what price does or what your profit/loss account shows. just do your job, and act how your rules say. If you dont know what you shall do, stop trading and build a trading plan.....
    U must be prepared for every situation. Not every trade works out how you thought....

    If you lose money, then reduce the risk on the next trades until you have made your lost money back, then you can increase your risk again. This is called risk managment.......

    Best regards
  4. vikana

    vikana Moderator

    Wow - that's a charming way to ask for help or advice.
  5. the markets move how they move, because of fixed rules, the traders gave the markets. the mass of losers and the few pro winners. These two participants are the market and human behaviour does not evolve. Human behaviour is simple.
    " If something works, no need for change it" !!!

    If it would not be so, the markets would look totaly different. And acutally there would be no market, because then no trader could make any constant business of it......

    thats why markets are moved by clear fixed rule based strategies. i would say 95% of the time, the other 5% are news and fundamental influence.

    just my view of my business.....
  6. at anyrate, I do it with my discetionary trading, but I get burned if I should ever think I am "on to something" and fail to adapt.

    When you are young a week or a day is a big part of your life, but when you are old a year is just a small part of your total lifetime existence, so it is natural to start looking more longterm.

    I've just noticed two things. A desire to figure it all out so you never have to figure it out again, and a reluctance to change once you have figured it out.

    But when you start trading on longer time frames, you start realizing that what you are doing now is the same stuff you gave up doing years ago because it didn't work anymore.

    I was just wondering if any of you young kids have tried to program some kind of predictable evolution in trading. (or are you still doing it like we did and trying to come up with something that works all the time.)
  7. N54_Fan


    If you think this is just a sit back and withdraw money type thing you are lost. This is WAR!!....you must be a mercanary and fight on the side that is going to win. You must be willing to adapt and overcome obstacles to meet your objective....just like a Marine or Navy Seal.

    The market takes from those not willing to do the work and gives to those that are willing to overcome any obstacle.
  8. how i said before, i think every strategy needs an stop point in the creation process.
    otherwise, if you always change it, you will lose in the long run....

    there is no such thing, like an always envolving strategy......

    it is not so easy, just focus on the easy things that work, thats your edge....

  9. +1

    i almost lost 200k yesterday, but i have fortunately came back in profits. Trading is hardcore. Believe my words: HARDCORE !!!
  10. hate, yep, change, all the time, never stop changing. Or as you Germans say, "goose step no mo mine kompf"
    #10     Oct 20, 2011