What evidence do you see around you, if any, of an improving economy - especially hiring? Please do not discuss real estate. Geo.
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc., planned job cuts in U.S. fell to 77,250 in February 2004, compared to a figure of 117,500+ in January, 2004.
Thank you Grob. Observations are invited from your trading life and/or from signs in your community. Please say where you live and I hope to hear comments from outside the US as well. Geo.
I live in AZ and it is a state that has very favorable balance of payments. Most people come here with their life savings or from foreign countries to begin new lives. Our county (Pima) starts about 29 developments a month. we are rolling into a global economy that has used the US balance of payments to seed start ups for many years. Now we are outsourcing labor in a wider variety of ways. The world is way past needing a full employment economy and AZ sits on the yop of the pile. All investors will be making much more money than they ever ever expected as the concept of the corporation is used to establish stock markets all over the planet. The current glitch in the US's holding up all this progress will be remedied fairly soon.
is one of the top producing commercial RE brokers in Chicago. He is telling me that things are picking up, new leases in the 5-10Ksq ft range getting done in the loop. Interest increasing for some of the larger spaces. His office is hiring slew of new brokers for what they expect to be new business this year in Chicago. Enterprise hiring some 6500 new people nationwide due to success of their local car rental office model (though I can think of how this is not a positive indicator).
Look at the results and comp's these retailers posted. They are not selling stuff anyone HAS to have so someone has plenty of disposable income. From Marketwatch: "Chico's FAS (CHS: news, chart, profile) posted fourth-quarter earnings of $25.6 million, or 29 cents a share, vs. $15.1 million, or 17 cents a share, in the same quarter the year before. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had been looking for a 28-cent per-share profit. Revenue at the women's clothing retailer rose to $215.5 million from $138.3 million. Separately, Chico's said its same-store February sales gained 28 percent over last year. Shares of Chico's rose 30 cents after the bell, to $44.50. Teen retailer Hot Topic (HOTT: news, chart, profile) posted earnings of $22.5 million, or 45 cents a share, for the fourth quarter, vs. $16.6 million, or 34 cents a share, last year. Analysts had been looking for a 45-cent per-share profit, according to Thomson First Call. Sales rose to $194.1 million from $148.3 million. Separately, Hot Topic said its February same-store sales were up 7.6 percent over the same month last year. "Shares of Hot Topic fell 2.7 percent to $27.91 in after-hours dealings. Other late movers in the retail sector included Aeropostale (ARO: news, chart, profile). The mall-based youth retail said February sales at stores open longer than a year soared 26.4 percent after a 3.1 percent decline in the same quarter a year ago. Total sales jumped 58.5 percent to $43.1 million from $27.2 million. And American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS: news, chart, profile) reported that same-store sales of its namesake stores were 15.2 percent higher than the year-ago period while total sales catapulted 27.3 percent to $94.6 million. Aeropostale shares slipped 2 cents to trade for $35."
Wow so I see the government propaganda is really coming through to all of you. Very interesting. Hmm let's see, Record deficits, record consumer debt, high unemployment, cheap money and an outflow of foreign capital out of the country. Oh yeah this economy is just sky-rocketing. It's nice to create hypothetical scenarios where everything is all and fine magically through globalization but the reality is that whatever consumption occuring in USA is through debt and debt alone. Or it is through government benefits which is from tax payers and more debt. Grob: You seem like an intelligent man, I think. But listen, what the hell is even going on in AZ? Honestly, it's a quite insignificant state in comparison to the East Coast, West Coast and the big South States. People actually move to AZ to start a new life? What? People from foregn countries? I'm sorry I just do not see any normal person that is well off moving to AZ for any reason. Sounds more like a retirement community to me. The economy will get better because of this? Come on now, this is just babble. And your remark about investors making more money makes me laugh. Financial markets cannot exist if the average public actually profits from them. It's all about the few rich stealing from the many many poor. So the US public cannot live from foreign investments cause they will get robbed by their own big houses as well as the foreign ones.
This is nothing new to those who have studied the most recent business models, IE from 1995 on, in B school. I remember lectures at the UofC pertaining to just what is happening to the economy. The basic jist, or theory is that the economy does not have to run high number for employment. (historically we are still at low levels of unemployment) We s r scaling down the labor force, ie, the electronic cashier as in those machines at most stores where you scan prices ur self, etc. Business's are becoming leaner and more efficent...getting rid of the Suit and Tie middel man and dead weight. ( the monkey in the middel is an endanger species, and so is the "cubical Jockey) The threat of a 9 to 5er losing their job is just around the corner for all who fall into that categ. What is happening is total shift in what we would call GDP. Soon, GDP numbers will include all the outsorcing and Multinational manufacturing of US goods. The latter part of the theory is that this shift towards efficent labor will cause a huge gap between the have and havenots. What the effects of this new erra and the shift in the business model will have on the markets is debated. Some say it will create a perputal bull market and others say it will cause a collapse. The shift is in such a early stage that the effects will not be felt for possible decades.
This is my nutty observation. For the first time in two decades I see robust price expansion in virtually all asset classes. To me it's a MAJOR BEAR ITEM FOR EQUITIES. From the mid 80's through present, stock's climbed a wall of deflationary worry. Now prices are skyrocketing. There's only so much $ to go around. You can't pay high property taxes, high food/energy costs, high insurance premiums, finance 500bil a year in domestic public debt and still keep stock valuations at these levels. The more apparent this "recovery" becomes, the more macro bearish I'm becoming.