THE FIRST HOUR OF THE DAY .......for me it is the only predictable action , bull, bear or nowhere market.......after 10:30 it is all a crapshoot...people who trade with real $$$$...........analyze your p&l by time of day.........
You average 10 posts a day, which should speak volumes to those who are unfamiliar with your "calls." Anyhow, the price action remains positive; dips are being bought & 850 is the upside target, in my opinion. Markets "exhaust" when they become too stretched in one direction. As unemployment hits 10% and corp. earnings fall further, it will be difficult to hold this thing up. I see this rally as short covering and a powerful counter-trend rally. Sorry, but I just don't see where the "earnings" will come from. Banks only made money in the first quarter because AIG unwound some large positions at a terrible loss, benefiting hte counterparties (banks). I view this as an aberration. When it becomes evident that Peter Pan's Panacea won't work, I feel we'll revisit the 666 low. 666. Watch for it. Not yet, however; we'll probably peg 850 or 876 first. Technicals can change relatively quickly; fundamentals are slower to change. GL. EDIT: The debt levels of consumers are SO OBSCENE it's just not possibly to have an expansion until or unless consumers REDUCE (PAY DOWN) existing debt. That could set up a fresh wave of borrowing & spending. That said, politicians won't let it happen. THey're gonna make this thing worse by not letting anyone fail (except Stock Trad3R).
Roman, Let's assume for moment you're correct. Financial firms have $1.3 Trillion in write downs so far. $3.0 Trillion is predicted by some prominent economists (the usual suspects). Do you think this is NOT going to happen? Or do you think the market no longer cares when companies lose ADDITIONAL hundreds of billions of dollars? My mindset ist hat when we're about 75% through this the stock market will appropriately price in the futures growth. Right now, at best, it seems we're about 40-55% through this thing. So don't you think you're long-term bullish bets are premature? Short term bullish bets I agree with; don't misunderstand me. ******** Since August 2000, stocks (S&P 500) have lost over 83% of their value, as measured against gold. Sorry, but long term ownership of stocks is for suckers. Especially now.
I'm a big believer in cycles.. 2009.3 -- End of this optimism. It's coming soon--could coincide with GM BK. (Martin Armstrong is out there a bit but it's all lining up.)
when you have a big upmove like this in the face of bad news a lot of fund managers missed it. now they fear the train is leaving the station. now they will buy the dips until it stops working.
Yes, but that's only a fraction of the total banking sector. There are many unbelievable buys in banking right now! You'll have to be very patient, but if you wait you will have to get in at much higher prices. It isn't a matter of banks could all fail and everyone loses their money. Most banks are not going to fail, and you will double your money in five years or less. We could very well have a few thrusts down into the mid 700's, but for now the S&P wants to move into that 800-840 band and hang out there for awhile. It no longer appears that the 600's are likely, but we can't yet rule them out. Will we have some bad inflation coming out of this? Yes. And inflation is the single most powerful force lifting the market.
"Prominent economists" says, so it`s already priced in, and the stock market is a leading indicator, i.e. the real economy is back in about 9 months?