The market this past week has been tougher than usual. According to level 2 data, there has been massive buying - presumably by institutional traders (not john doe the crappy retail trader). I'm wondering if the big players in the market have made an effort to push everything lower so they can get good prices before the possible upcoming rally. I say upcoming, because allot of institutional traders will have made a very stupid mistake if there is no rally! Has anyone else seen this? What are your thoughts.....bad analysis?
Fed stimulus is coming in 1-2 months. June or july fed meeting. i still think we should touch the 200 ma though, slice through it to trap the shorts. We havent touched it in a year.
I donât mean to be rude to the OPâs post but this is simply not true about massive buying and a set up by the big players to drive the market lower for a QE type rally supposedly coming sometime later this year. The majority of this massive buying you saw if you look at a Daily chart this last month on commodities/currencies/indices on Monday was people taking money off the table and covering part of their shorts as they made a great windfall starting on 5/4(sooner for the really gifted trader). On just about every chart we were way oversold so it is logical to see a spike bounce like the one we saw yesterday and maybe a follow through today. But it still remains that the institutions were selling this market like you because technicals broke down simply put. They donât have a motive to drive markets lower only to get in at a better price when QE comes because that didnât work 2 months ago when people were positioning for QE that never came. You saw the reaction in gold/AUD/ copper/palladium ect that the QE bet was a dud and they had to cover. As for QE coming In a month or two I would not expect anything from the Fed until you see UK showing a possible rate cut and introduction of QE as we would most likely come in behind them and Greece decision to get on board with Austerity or leave. The fed is not going to throw money into the system or make it to where fixed income/cash trasnfers are not attractive if we still have Greece hanging on because if we do introduce tomorrow and they decide to leave in June-August the operation would be a dud as well. I like everyone might be nibbling at these levels for a possible yearend rally but no way will I hold until I get more clarity in June.
the economic data in june will be worse then in may. and may is pretty worse compared to march and april. i fully expect the fed to stimulate as they have donein the past with qe and twist. al they need is the excuse of bad economic data in june.
I'm no macro guy by any means, I just look at price, but is there any chance that fed will be propping up Europe further behind the scenes? Didn't they give money to europe under the table after 08 crises through QE-QE2 ? http://www.zerohedge.com/article/ex...ign-banks-continues-expense-domestic-economy- If in fact they did and Europe is headed south fast right now, who else can save them besides Uncle Ben? Have I smoked too much pot or is this a valid assumption ?