It seems everone is calling for a drop. What we need to see is everyone calling for higher & higher oil prices. Turn on Bloomberg, you will see everyday someone calling for lower oil going forward. Guess the market is WRONG!
Why cant it go higher before lower? Im a Oil bear but waiting for 150-160 area and depending on how it reacts there maybe it goes to 180-200.. ideally, it spikes and rises fast, but ultimately its a bubble.
I agree with the OP. I hear a zillion people a day say "bubble", "when it goes to 85", "true value is 70" ect. I LIVE to short runaway bulls. I won't even consider shorting CL until I see less bearish sentiment. As a tape reader it's clear to me new shorts pile in on every $2 decline and find no commercial selling in back of them to cover into. Manipulated, over speculative markets don't grind higher they explode higher. This stuff still has a ways to go before it punishes enough shorts so that it can finally top.
Well the stocks tied to these industries certainly trade like there in bubbles. There are many stocks up 3-4 hundred percent in the last three months.
Tops do not occur when widespread sentiment is bearish and everyone is picking a top. Just like Pabst said, this is an over-shorted market that most people are sceptical of. The market it reminds me most of is the dot.com final bull run in Q4 1999 and Q1 2000. So many people were shorting that or sceptical of the move, we had exactly the same barrage of bearish commentary, lots of people kept shorting on every slight downmove, believing it was THE top. They were not only wrong, many of them went flat broke, and the ones that avoided crushing losses still missed out on the bull market of the decade. Now the same is happening in energy. It really is remarkable how few people are raging bulls on oil, compared to how many sceptics and naysayers there are. In fact, it's so remarkable that despite being long the underlying and fair amount of calls, I am starting to think my position is too small. I'd like to ask - what is it about going long and making some nice easy money in line with the prevailing bull market, that is so hard to do? Just jettison your puts (I know you bears are too chicken to short the underlying), go long, add more on dips, and load up on some deep OTM calls in case it spikes to $180 plus if Israel bombs Iran. There's even a fairly close set of logical stops for you at $130 and $120.
THAT is the $64,000...er..I mean.. $64,000,000 (inflation) question, Cutten. I've asked myself that very question many times when I try to catch the top (or bottom) of a move. Solve that problem and a man can be rich, rich, rich.