Everyone bullish

Discussion in 'Trading' started by dividend, Sep 19, 2007.

  1. Everyone turned bullish today. Market must creep back down tomorrow, or at least within 1 month. :-D

    What would be some reasons given for the market going down tomorrow (actually today since it's early AM)?

    My hypothesis is the CPI #.

    Within the past 33 years only 3 periods where fedfund rates were cut from 6% or below.

    period 1: 6.0 to 5.25 in 3 cuts. 1.23% gain on day 1 but ended the first month up only .86%.

    period 2: 5.50 to 4.75 in 3 cuts. 0.03% gain on day 1 and only 1.56% gain first month.

    period 3: 6.00 to 1.00 in 12 cuts. 5.01% gain on day 1 but ended first month up only 1.92%

    source: bespoke

    btw im not clear what exactly is "first month" performance.... I tried calculating the data up myself and couldn't get the same #s...

    anyone know?
  2. 9/18 -- ES close 1520.25
    9/20 -- ES close 1518.50

    0 replies so I knew it would work.
  3. ?......(1) Small Sample Bias? (2) Is the "first month" the end of the calendar month or 30 days later? (3) You may also want to determine if the market was in a bull or bear trend when those 3 easings happened.
  4. Why not be bullish? So easy to make money.